2023 World Baseball Classic best bet for Saturday, March 11: Julio Urias takes the mound for Mexico

Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Julio Urias (7) following the top of the sixth inning against the Minnesota Twins at Dodger Stadium.
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To the surprise of no one, Japan has been the juggernaut at the World Baseball Classic. It is 3-0, is outscoring opponents 31-7 and has already punched a ticket to the quarterfinals out of Group B. Now we move on top Day 5 of the festivities, which features the opening games of Group C. Among the teams in action are Colombia and Mexico, who are squaring off in what has all the makings of a crucial contest in the grand scheme of the group.

Let’s take a look at my best bet for today’s action as I try to build on the success of my first bet during the World Baseball Classic. The over/under for Japan vs South Korea on Friday was 7.5 and the over was an easy winner as Japan rolled 13-4. 

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Colombia vs Mexico predictions in the 2023 World Baseball Classic 2023: Under 8.5 (-115)

Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing 

Julio Urias is taking the mound for Mexico on Saturday. Needless to say, that is good news for the Mexican side. Urias had the best ERA in the National League with the Los Angeles Dodgers last season (2.16) while going 17-7.

I don’t think Colombia is going to do much damage against him – if any. The Colombians have a mix of Major League Baseball players and minor leaguers, the former of which includes Angels third baseman Gio Urshela and Rays outfielder Harold Ramirez. At best this offense could be solid; it also could be anemic. Having to face Urias on Saturday, it will probably be the latter in this case. It should also be noted that in the 2017 World Baseball Classic the Colombians scored 9 runs in 3 games and their first 2 games featured a total of 5 runs. 

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Meanwhile, the Colombians are countering with Nabill Crismatt toeing the rubber. Crismatt is a right-handed reliever for the San Diego Padres and has been stellar in 2 seasons with the club. The 28-year-old has a 3.38 ERA for his career, which spans 157.0 innings. In 2022 he tossed 67.1 innings and compiled a 2.94 ERA to go along with a 1.17 WHIP. The strength of Mexico’s team is its pitching as opposed to its offense, so Crismatt has a good chance to keep his team close in the early stages of the game and perhaps throughout the whole thing.

I’m expecting a low-scoring affair on Saturday and an 8.5 number gives the under solid value. That’s the play to make. 

Check out our World Baseball Classic preview for team analysis and best bets 

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