Patriots vs Bears Player Props: Best Bets and Predictions

Thursday Night Football in NFL Week 7 gives us two playoff teams from the previous season that have yet to convince us that they've taken a jump in 2026. The New England Patriots (+3.5) are traveling to the Midwest to take on the Chicago Bears, and the total sits at a healthy 50.5. The Bears managed to stay afloat in the brief absence of Caleb Williams and sit at 4-2, while the Patriots are a similar 4-2 and have strung together three straight wins. A key injury for me in this game is TreVeyon Henderson's high ankle sprain, and the fact that Corey Kiner stole carries late in last week's game. We could see a RB by committee approach from the Pats on TNF. Let's get into my best Patriots vs Bears player prop bets for Thursday Night Football, while you can also find out our expert NFL picks on the side and total for this matchup and every game in Week 7!

Best Patriots vs Bears Player Prop Bet: Caleb Williams (CHI) Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-149)

Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. 1u

It's tough to find a real read on Williams this season given all the variability through six weeks. He played very well in Week 1 with two passing and two rushing TDs. The following week was a windy, rainy mess against the blitz-heavy Minnesota Vikings, where he got hurt later in the game, and last week was a blowout for three quarters despite what the box score may suggest.

I'm taking the juice here on what I think should be a potential upset from the Patriots and the Bears playing from behind at some point. The Patriots' pass defense is top five in the league in DVOA, but I question the talent level of the passing offenses they’ve faced through six weeks, with the Drew Lock Seahawks, Raiders and Jets being big drivers of those stats. Williams had 2+ passing TDs in nine of 17 games last season and in five of eight at home.

Find out pro NFL bettor Chris Farley's Patriots vs Bears predictions for TNF - he's up +16.3 units this season!

Patriots vs Bears Player Prop Pick: Luther Burden (CHI) Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+190)

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. 0.5u

Of the seven passing touchdowns that the Patriots' defense has surrendered this season, six have gone to wide receivers. The other big factor here is that the Patriots run man coverage at the second-highest rate in the league (34%) while Burden leads the team in targets per route run vs man coverage (28%), and he has a 71% success rate against man coverage. This ties into our play above, and we're getting nearly 2-1 and a total at 50.5.

After recent SGP winners at +750, +700 and +650, don't miss our expert's Patriots vs Bears Same Game Parlay for TNF