Best Bets For UFC on ESPN 11

Alexander Volkov is pictured during weigh-ins for UFC 229 at T-Mobile Arena.
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Matthew Lowrimore

UFC · 2 years ago

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Matthew has been with Pickswise for over a year now, covering a wide variety of sports. His main passion is college football and that is the sport he has covered the most. Matthew uses a variety of methods to handicap games, including stats, trends, injuries, and situational factors. His goal is to consistently give out winners and will do everything he can to make his readers money.

This Saturday night is set to be an interesting one as we have a full card of fights scheduled. The next event is set to be held at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.

Let’s take a look at my three best bets for Saturday, I also recommend checking out my three-fight parlay on UFC on ESPN 11.

Main Card

Alexander Volkov (+297) over Curtis Blaydes

The main event at UFC on ESPN 11 will be a Heavyweight bout between Curtis Blaydes and Alexander Volkov. Alexander Volkov comes into this fight ranking as the #7 contender in the division. He is a veteran when it comes to MMA, posting a record of 31-7. That being said, he is just 5-1 in the UFC. He started 4-0 in the UFC before losing to Derrick Lewis by KO in October of 2018. He did bounce back in his last fight, beating Greg Hardy by unanimous decision in November of 2019. Unlike Blaydes, Volkov will want to stand up and fight. He averages 5.36 significant strikes per minute at an accuracy of 60%. More impressively, Volkov has a takedown defense of 76%, which should help negate Blaydes ability to take him to the mat. Knowing that Volkov can prevent takedowns at a high level makes me think he can win this fight standing up. That being said, I will lean Volkov here and look for him to score an upset win.

Lyman Good (+105) over Belal Muhammad

The second fight on the main card at UFC on ESPN 11 will be a Welterweight fight between Lyman Good and Belal Muhammad. Lyman Good comes into this fight with a career record of 21-5 in the MMA, but just 3-2 in the UFC. Good will look to stand up in this fight as he is averaging 5.32 significant strikes per minute at 49%. He does not look for takedowns often, averaging 0.38 per 15 minutes, but with a takedown accuracy of 100%, he always lands one when he has tried. As for his takedown defense, he sits at 75% which should give him an edge against the guy looking for takedowns. With Good having proved he can limit his opponent’s takedowns, I look for him to win this fight as a small underdog based on the fact that he is a little better in a pure stand up fight.

FanDuel ALL

Undercard

Cortney Casey (-106) over Gillian Robertson

The fourth preliminary at UFC on ESPN 11 will be a bout in the UFC Women’s Flyweight division between Gillian Robertson and Cortney Casey. Cortney Casey is coming off a submission win against Mara Romero Borella. This fight was back on May 16th an improves her MMA record to 9-7. She is also now 5-6 in the UFC and will be looking to start a winning streak. Casey has shown she can stand up and fight, landing an average of 4.72 significant strikes per minute. She does absorb 4.63 strikes so she needs to be cautious going forward. While Casey has 4 submission wins in her career, she will probably be more comfortable in a stand up fight. Especially against Robertson, who would rather fight on the ground. Given that Casey has fought more recently, I would lean her way because a long layoff for Robertson could make her a little timid.

In addition to our best bets, be sure to check out all of our UFC on ESPN 11 expert predictions. Odds correct as of Thursday via DraftKings Sportsbook. Get a sign up bonus up to $1,000 when you use this link to create a new account or see more offers and sportsbook reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

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