Best MLB player prop bet for today, 11/1: Gallen pitches 5 innings or fewer
The Texas Rangers took a commanding 3-1 World Series lead with a dominating offensive performance in Game 4. Among their 11 runs scored, 10 were within the first 3 innings, and they will look to continue the momentum in tonight’s matchup. Arizona will turn to their ace in Zac Gallen, but the right-hander is tasked with a difficult repeat matchup, and I am looking to bet against him in this spot. Let’s dive in, but be sure to read our Texas Rangers vs Arizona Diamondbacks predictions for tonight’s game.
Zac Gallen (ARI) under 15.5 outs (-128)
Odds available at Caesars at time of publishing. Playable to -135 odds.
Zac Gallen had an outstanding season for the Arizona Diamondbacks overall this year, but his performance slipped a bit in the 2nd half of the regular season and now in the playoffs. The right-handed pitcher saw his ERA and FIP jump by over a run each following the all-star break, while his K-BB% fell by 2.6%. In the playoffs his K-BB% has taken another drastic hit, falling all the way to just 4.2% compared to his 20.4% regular season rate. Gallen was someone who performed far better in his home starts, but despite having this to his advantage I am not fond of his spot on paper against this Texas lineup.
Texas faced Gallen in the regular season, knocking him out of the game after 5 innings of work. This was early on in the season when his command hit a peak, and he still fell short of this 15.5 mark despite no walks across 94 pitches. He threw 99 pitches in Game 1’s loss, matching his first start with 3 earned runs allowed. This time his 4 walks resulted in a high pitch count while his general effectiveness was low. Despite missing Adolis Garcia, Texas still has one of the more potent offenses in the sport. Pitching against them twice in such a short timeframe is not an easy task, especially when there were signs of struggle in the first matchup.
With Arizona trailing 3-1 in the series their room for error is extremely low. While they used numerous arms in last night’s win, this is still a do-or-die scenario where a loss ends their season. Gallen is the guy they want on the mound in terms of his season-long production and talent, but they will still pull the plug if he shows signs of struggle early on. Texas is a patient team that generated a high BB% all season long, and with having just faced him I expect increased familiarity from their bats. Even if pitching well through 5 we could see him pulled as in the regular season Gallen allowed a 6.19 ERA and .832 OPS the 3rd time through the order. I would anticipate Gallen finishing at exactly 15 outs in this game and see some slight value on the under 15.5 outs recorded.
After last night’s winner, get our Texas Rangers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Same Game Parlay at +815 odds