Best MLB player prop bet for today, 9/14: Finding Value in Adley Rutschman

Baltimore Orioles catcher Adley Rutschman
Photo of Ahaan Rungta

Ahaan Rungta


Show Bio

NBA & MLB writer for Pickswise, also specializing in NFL betting and fantasy football. Rungta also works in analytics & betting for PlayerProfiler. For Ahaan Rungta media enquiries, please email
Read more about Ahaan Rungta

Thursday Night Football has bettors and their sportsbooks busy, but we don’t discriminate when it comes to finding value – we’ve found a peculiar market with plenty of value on tonight’s thin MLB slate. Here is my best player prop bet for the evening of Thursday, and make sure to check out all of our MLB predictions for today’s slate.

BetMGM is the king of online sportsbooks, and right now they have a great new customer promotion where you can get up to $1,500 in bonus bets if you don’t win! Click this link to join BetMGM.

Adley Rutschman (BAL) over 0.5 singles (-120)

Line available at DraftKings at time of publishing; recommended 0.50u wager.

The Orioles have lost back-to-back games at the hands of struggling starting pitchers; it is time for an attempt to bounce back in a new series against a divisional rival, and for that to happen, their leadoff man needs to set the stage for a deep lineup. He gets a good matchup to do that against Rays starting pitcher Aaron Civale.

Why I find value in this peculiar market has to do fully with Rutschman’s consistency in cashing this exact prop. Since August 1, Rutschman has an impressive 136 wRC+ against right-handed pitching at home, but that is with a low 6.3% walk rate, low .136 ISO, and middle-of-the-pack 30.0% HardHit%. In that 16-game sample, he has 15 hits and 12 of them are singles.

Civale brings with him a low 6.7% walk rate but some hittable stuff (34.8% HardHit%) against left-handed hitters on the season. His best pitch is a curveball that he heavily uses for outs against left-handers, but since August 1, Rutschman has posted a team-leading .488 xBA against right-handed curveballs.

Even if the Baltimore switch-hitting catcher doesn’t get the job done against Civale and the Rays turn him around to hit right-handed, his recent numbers provide similar encouragement. Since August 1, Rutschman has posted a 133 wRC+ but low .137 ISO against left-handed pitchers as well. I would recommend playing this prop up to -125 on your sportsbook.

Our YRFI/NRFI bets bets are on a 4-0 run!

You can bet on today’s MLB action over at DraftKings Sportsbook, which has a great sign-up offer where you can bet $5 and get $200 in bonus bets no matter what! Click here to take advantage and claim your bonus bets right now.

By signing up you agree to our terms and privacy policy