Best MLB player prop bet today 6/2: Austin Gomber's home struggles continue

Colorado Rockies starting pitcher Austin Gomber (26) on the mound against the San Francisco Giants during the sixth inning at Oracle Park.
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Keith Schmelter

MLB · 4 weeks ago

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A Bostonian with a love for stats and baseball. Using knowledge and passion to find the right bet in MLB, NBA, NFL, and more. A lover of bold sports takes and sweat free plus odds picks. Go Sox!
Happy Thursday! It’s been a great week of baseball so far and we have a nice slate of 12 MLB games today, but there is one player prop that I really like.

Before that, be sure to check out our full game previews for tonight’s matchups.

Without further ado, let’s get into it!

Austin Gomber (COL) under 4.5 strikeouts (-155)

Line available on DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.

If you’re looking to be daring, you can get under 3.5 strikeouts at plus-money odds on FanDuel. However, I’ll take the safer option and back the under 4.5 strikeouts at DraftKings. Gomber has been terrible this season and to no surprise, pitching at Coors Field has not helped the lefty. In 4 starts at home, Gomber has a 4.13 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP, but more importantly, his strikeout rate drops to 13.5%. His strikeout rate was never that high in the first place as Gomber is getting just 17.9% of batters to take strike three this season, and that’s because opponents are mashing everything that the lefty throws. Hitters have above a .300 xBA on 3 of Gomber’s 4 pitches which account for 86.2% of pitches he has thrown this season.

I’m almost done with all of Gomber’s negatives, so bear with me. Gomber is throwing his fastball for nearly 50% of pitches and even as a lefty, it’s not a good pitch as he ranks in the 26th percentile for fastball spin. If opponents are hitting that, Gomber will resort to his slider which is very hit-or-miss, or his changeup which fools nobody since hitters have a .355 batting average against that pitch. Finally, the lefty has not recorded 5 or more strikeouts since May 4, and he’s averaged just 2.25 strikeouts in his last 4 starts.

The Braves should knock Gomber out of the game by the 4th inning. Atlanta ranks 6th in OPS and 5th in on-base percentage against left-handed pitchers and their righty-dominant lineup should feast on Gomber’s poor pitching. The Braves are 11-6 against left-handed starting pitchers and have the perfect opportunity to rock Gomber in the most hitter-friendly park in baseball. I expect Gomber to have only a couple of strikeouts and not record more than 5 against this offensive beast of a Braves lineup.

Be sure to check out our full game preview for Atlanta Braves vs Colorado Rockies

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