Best MLB player prop bets for Monday, 10/16: Yordan Alvarez finds 1st base
Monday’s MLB playoff action has both championship series on deck. We cashed in on Jordan Montgomery under 1.5 walks last night in a sweat as he pitched into the 7th inning. You can read our MLB predictions for today’s matchups, but for now, let’s dive into the best MLB player prop bets for Monday, October 16 as we look to make it 9-1 in the MLB playoffs for player prop bets.
Yordan Alvarez, HOU, Over 0.5 walks (-110)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Jordan Montgomery made an effort to pitch around Yordan Alvarez last night. He found himself in multiple 3-2 counts, but Montgomery made marvelous pitchers to punch out Alvarez 3 times. Today, I expect much of the same from Nathan Eovaldi in terms of pitching around Alvarez, who has a rich history against Eovaldi. In 7 at-bats versus Eovaldi, Alvarez has 5 hits, including a home run and a double.
Eovaldi, along with Zack Wheeler, has been the most impressive pitcher this postseason. He’s allowed just 1 run in each start while punching out 15 batters. If Eovaldi doesn’t pitch around Alvarez, I expect the bullpen to, which was their weak point in the regular season but has come to life during their 6-0 postseason run.
I’m turning to DraftKings for this player prop as they grade an intentional walk as a win. If first base is open with runners on at any point in the game, I don’t see it being logical for the Rangers to pitch to Alvarez, who is hitting .350 this postseason with 6 extra-base hits.
You can also read our Rangers/Astros Same Game Parlay
Zac Gallen, ARI, Under 5.5 strikeouts (-132)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Zac Gallen was one of my profitable pitchers this season. He was in the running for the NL CY Young Award until the last month of the regular season, where he had a 4.17 ERA and allowed an opponent on-base percentage of .311. Gallen has been impressive in his first two career playoff starts but has yet to reach 6 K’s and has struggled with command.
The atmosphere in Philadelphia is like no other. Opposing pitchers have had their work cut for them. Gallen, in particular, pitched in Citizens Bank Park in the regular season. He struck out just 3 batters in 5.2 innings pitched. The postseason will be a different story for the New Jersey native, who will face off against a Phillies offense hitting .274 in the playoffs and have the highest slugging percentage.
Unders have been the way to attack pitchers in the postseason thus far. Last night in the Rangers-Astros game was the first time both starting pitchers pitched into the 7th inning this postseason. In a 7-game series and a Diamondbacks bullpen that has been impressive in the playoffs, Gallen may have his leash cut short if he loses command. He’s walked at least 2 batters in 4 straight road starts where he typically struggles.
You can also read our Diamondbacks/Phillies +500 Same Game Parlay