Best MLB player prop bets for today, 9/29: Carlos Rodon shines in final outing

New York Yankees starting pitcher Carlos Rodon (55) reacts during the fourth inning against the New York Mets at Yankee Stadium.
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We’ve almost made it to October. Only a handful of teams have something to play for tonight, while others are ready to close the chapter on 2023.

New York Yankees LHP Carlos Rodon headlines our top MLB player prop bet of the day, but be sure to also check out our MLB predictions for every matchup on the docket.

Carlos Rodon (Yankees) under 3.5 earned runs (-140)

Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.

It hasn’t been the year Carlos Rodon envisioned for his first year in Yankees pinstripes. Health was the primary concern, as he didn’t start his season until July 7. When he finally was able to pitch, it wasn’t pretty. His xERA ranks in the 24th percentile, while his average exit velocity given up ranks in the 2nd percentile. Enough with the negativity towards Rodon, I’m backing him in his final start of the season at a number that is disrespectful from the sportsbook.

This may seem ridiculous, but this is Rodon’s most crucial start of the season. With the Yankees out of contention and Rodon’s monster contract, he’s stuck in New York for years to come. With a quality outing tonight against the 54-105 Kanas City Royals, Rodon will go into 2024 with something to build on.

The leash is yet to be determined for Rodon. His outs line is set at 16.5 with vig on the under. He’s thrown at least 90 pitches in his last 3 starts and, more importantly, has held all his opponents to under 4 runs. That’s all we need tonight against the Royals, who are striking out at the 4th-highest rate against LHP this month. Ironically enough, Rodon has had a ton of whiffs in his last few starts. Before his last start, he had 53 whiffs, which ranked in the top 10.

All in all, I project Rodon to be sharp tonight. His strikeout line at 5.5 intrigues me, but I’ll settle for the under on his earned runs as he has stayed under this total in 8 of his 13 starts and 4 straight on the road.

Don’t miss today’s YRFI/NRFI best bets

JP France (Astros) under 16.5 outs (-120)

Available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing.

The most important game of the slate is where we’ll take our action. The Arizona Diamondbacks will play host to the Houston Astros with a ton on the line. The Astros are a game ahead of the Seattle Mariners for the final wild-card spot, while the Diamondbacks hold a 1.5-game lead for the 2nd berth in the NL. Ace Zac Gallen will be on the mound for the Diamondbacks, while the Astros will have JP France, who I anticipate having a short leash.

The advanced metrics are brutal for the 28-year-old. France ranks in the bottom-20 percentile in xERA, xBA and K rate. His walks have been a problem lately, with him issuing at least 3 walks in 3 of his last 4 starts. If France isn’t sharp out the gate, which he hasn’t been, don’t be surprised if manager Dusty Baker pulls the plug early with a fresh bullpen after a day off yesterday.

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