Javan Shouey
It’s moving day in MLB with a ton of afternoon games for bettors to sink their teeth into, as well as a few in the evening to consider. For my best MLB player prop bets today, I’m targeting Michael King in Giants vs Padres and Corbin Burnes in Diamondbacks vs Mets — specifically their strikeout props. Let’s dive in, while you can also get our MLB picks for each of today’s big matchups.
Best MLB player prop bet: Michael King (SDP) over 6.5 strikeouts recorded (-129)
Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -140 odds. Risking 1u.
Michael King has smoothly transitioned from a very solid relief option for the Yankees to a bonafide top-end starting option in MLB that every rotation across baseball would enjoy having. San Diego is allowing the right-hander to consistently have one of the longer leashes among starters, surpassing 100 pitches twice this month, including 110 against the Rockies during his complete-game shutout. Overall, King has been very good, but one area I am looking to target is his strikeout ability in today’s matchup with the Giants.
San Francisco has the 9th-highest K% this season against right-handed pitching at 22.7%. However, during their road games, that rate against right-handers spikes to 26.7%, a mark that ranks 4th-worst in MLB. This matchup today plays into King’s superior splits as well, as the Padres’ starter has some of the more drastic K% splits in home and road games. Last season, King recorded just 92 strikeouts across 95 innings pitched on the road. In just 78.2 innings at his home park, he was able to record 109 strikeouts. Even dating back to his time with the Yankees, King has consistently been a pitcher who performs better at home, and I like his chances of success in this matchup.
King has 7 or more punchouts in 4 of 5 starts this month, including each of his 3 home outings. Dating back to last season, King has recorded 7 or more K’s in 14 of his 20 starts at home.
Read our full San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres prediction
Best MLB player prop bet: Corbin Burnes (ARZ) under 5.5 strikeouts recorded (-120)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -135 odds. Risking 1u.
Corbin Burnes is still capable of being an effective starting pitcher in this league, but his days of being a top-end strikeout artist seem to be done. Burnes has seen a steady drop in his K% and underlying strikeout metrics during recent seasons, and that has continued so far through his first 5 starts as a Diamondback. The right-hander has a career-low 21.9% strikeout rate this season to go along with a significant drop in his whiff rate. Opponents are creating contact against Burnes more than ever both in and out of the strike zone, and the results have been somewhat shaky so far. Burnes is generating a single-digit swinging strike rate for the first time in his career and is now tasked with a tough matchup on the road in New York.
The Mets have the league’s 5th-lowest K% against right-handed pitching this season at 19.5%, and when at home that rate drops even further to 17.7%. During the last 2 weeks of play, the Mets have a 125 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, so not only are they making contact, but their quality of contact has been strong. Active Mets hitters have also done damage in prior matchups with Burnes, posting a 1.011 OPS across 86 combined plate appearances to date. Burnes is not a starter with a short leash, but Arizona does have their bullpen well-rested, leaving no need to overextend him if he runs into any trouble. I favor the Under on his strikeout prop for Wednesday’s matchup.
Read our full Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Mets prediction
