Best MLB player prop bets today 5/23: Zack Wheeler keeps rolling

Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Zack Wheeler (45) throws a pitch against the San Diego Padres in the sixth inning at Citizens Bank Park.
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Keith Schmelter

MLB · 1 month ago

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A Bostonian with a love for stats and baseball. Using knowledge and passion to find the right bet in MLB, NBA, NFL, and more. A lover of bold sports takes and sweat free plus odds picks. Go Sox!

Happy Monday! We have a long week of baseball ahead of us and we have a solid slate of MLB games today, but there’s one player prop that I really like.

Before that, be sure to check out our full game previews for tonight’s matchups.

Without further ado, let’s get into it!

Zack Wheeler (PHI) over 6.5 strikeouts (-104)

Line available on FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.

Zack Wheeler has found his rhythm. The Philadelphia ace has not allowed a run in 3 of his last 4 starts. In those 26 innings, Wheeler has allowed 3 runs on 17 hits with 30 strikeouts and has looked like a completely different pitcher from his first few starts. Not much has changed when analyzing Wheeler’s pitch-type percentages in his last 4 starts, but it is interesting that his 3 starts with the highest average fastball velocity have come in his most recent outings.

I expect to see some positive regression in Wheeler’s next few starts due to the difference between his ERA and xERA. His xERA sits almost a half-run lower than his ERA, which indicates that he has been getting unlucky and his ERA should move closer to his xERA soon. Along with ranking in the 90th percentile in chase rate, Wheeler is above average in every single pitching category according to Baseball Savant. His stats indicate a better pitcher than who he was in his first few starts, which makes me believe oddsmakers have not adjusted for his improvement.

Wheeler has recorded at least 7 strikeouts in all 4 of his recent starts and he should continue that trend today. Back the veteran to record over 6.5 strikeouts in tonight’s divisional matchup against the Braves.

Be sure to check out our full game preview for Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves game.

Our Expert MLB handicappers look beyond the main markets with our MLB Picks and MLB Predictions, bringing you the best daily MLB Prop Bets.

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