Javan Shouey
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We have a full 15-game slate on tap for today’s MLB action, including 4 matchups starting in the afternoon. There are numerous intriguing matchups worth considering, but I am looking to back a specific arm in the Phillies vs Red Sox game. We’re on a 4-0 run with our MLB player prop bets, so let’s see if we can keep riding that momentum! In addition, you can find out our MLB picks for Wednesday, June 12.
Christopher Sanchez (PHI) over 5.5 strikeouts recorded (-122)
Odds available at FanDuel sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -130 odds. Risking 0.5u.
Christopher Sanchez (PHI) over 16.5 outs recorded (-114)
Odds available at FanDuel sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -125 odds. Risking 0.5u.
The Boston Red Sox have been providing opposing left-handed pitchers with advantageous matchups for some time now, and today we will look to take advantage of their weaknesses with Phillies starter Christopher Sanchez. Philadelphia’s southpaw has been a steady presence in the Phillies rotation this season, posting a 2.71 ERA and a 2.51 FIP while allowing 2 or fewer earned runs in 9 of 12 starts and no more than 4 in any of those 12. He has done a solid job of limiting free passes this season, and his 89th-percentile chase rate is a major reason why. Sanchez thrives on drawing batters outside of the zone and Boston has the league’s 7th-highest chase rate across the last 30 days of play. In that span, they have connected on those chases at the 6th-lowest rate. Overall, during those 30 days, they also have the 10th-lowest in-zone contact rate and the 10th-highest CSW%.
Not only do the Red Sox show poor plate discipline, but their overall aggressiveness can also lead to quick plate appearances and deep outings for opposing starters. Their overall rate of pitches per plate appearance sits right around league average, but Sanchez averages just 3.77 P/PA himself, the 37th-lowest mark among 126 qualified pitchers this season. Not only is he efficient with his batters, but his elite groundball rate helps him generate double plays even when runners do reach first base. Limiting steals has been a concern for the lefty, but this is still a matchup I am a fan of.
Sanchez has recorded 6 or more strikeouts in just 5 of his 12 starts, but 2 of his misses were just short at 5 strikeouts, and Boston’s 27.7% K% against left-handers in the last 30 days is a league-worst mark. He has flashed upside in the strikeout department this season, including 10 against the Rockies the first time, 8 against both the Reds and Nationals, and 7 just 2 starts ago against the Giants. He has recorded 17 or more outs in 7 of his last 10 starts, including 6 times where he completed 6 full frames and twice when he covered 7 innings of work. Boston has allowed 11 of 15 non-opener southpaws to record 6 or more strikeouts against them this season. While only 7 of them have surpassed this outs recorded prop, Sanchez’s elite efficiency should be conducive to a long outing.
