Best NBA Player Props for Wednesday's slate: Sabonis to Shine?

Domantas Sabonis of the Indiana Pacers
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PropBetGuy

NBA· 1 year ago

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More commonly known as @PropBetGuy on Twitter, Doug Carter has been crunching the numbers on player props for years. He's also a staunch defender of future Hall of Famer, Eli Manning.

The latest rendition of NBA Wednesday is here, and we’re treated to a robust slate with eighteen teams in action. As the season keeps chugging along, the quality of play continues to shine through. With so many marquee matchups on tap, be sure to check out our picks and analysis for sides and totals before you place your bets.

With the Super Bowl and NFL season in the rearview mirror, my focus turns solely to basketball.  Looking to build on my 88-49 record so far this season, I’ve identified value in two player props for tonight, both with an eye on point totals.

Domantas Sabonis over 21.5 points (-112)

Line available at publishing.

Over the last two seasons, the Pacers’ big man has transitioned into one of the better, more versatile players in the NBA. This year, he’s averaging 21 points per game. He’s reached at least 22 points in half of his 24 games. Since the trade of Victor Oladipo, and still without TJ Warren, the Pacers continue to lean on Sabonis and Malcolm Brogdon for offensive production, as both players are exceeding 26 percent usage rates.

Versus the Nets, Sabonis should see minimal defensive resistance. Brooklyn currently ranks 27th out of 30 teams in defensive efficiency. However, since the trade for James Harden, they rank last in the league. Against big men specifically, they allow the most points per game to opposing power forwards and centers. To cap it all off, they play at the league’s second-highest pace. Fast-paced teams playing poor defense is the perfect combination when looking at an opposing player’s over.

Sabonis has typically capitalized on these juicy matchups. In his last 18 games versus teams ranking in the bottom 10 of defensive efficiency, Sabonis has exceeded his points average twelve times. The Nets have allowed 20 players to score at least 22 points in their last thirteen games, and given their struggles versus big men, I love Sabonis’ outlook for this game.

Be sure to check out our full game preview for Indiana Pacers vs. Brooklyn Nets.

Coby White under 16.5 points (-110)

Line available at publishing.

The sophomore point guard comes into this game versus New Orleans averaging 14.9 points per game.  He’s stayed under this total in eight of his 23 games this season, including seven of his last eight. He’s in the midst of a shooting slump — in February, White is only shooting 36 percent from the field, including 29 percent from three.

The Pelicans have defended opposing point guards well this season. They allow the seventh-fewest points per game to the position. In general, New Orleans forces their opponents into an average shot 15 feet from the basket, ranking as the sixth furthest in the league. White is best when he gets to the basket — he’s only shooting 37 percent on his jump shots this season.

Lastly, White’s backcourt mate, Zach LaVine, is on a roll as of late, scoring 29 points per game in February. With a tough matchup for White, I like the Bulls to continue to ride the hot hand.

Be sure to check out our full game preview for New Orleans Pelicans vs. Chicago Bulls.

Pickswise is the home of free NBA picks and predictions. Make sure to also check out our NBA parlays and ‘NBA prop bets‘ tabs for more expert picks. 

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