Best Super Bowl LV betting trends: Tom Brady's slow starts worth noting
The NFL playoffs are winding down, and we’re now down to just two teams. Super Bowl LV week is almost here, and we’re getting a clash of generations as Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes prepare to do battle. Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers. There’s a lot to unpack, and of course, you can get our thoughts on the side and total for the matchup in our full game preview.
While you get ready to make your full complement of wagers for this big game, right now we’ll be talking about some trends relevant to this showdown to help inform your opinions. Let’s dive in:
The over is 27-26 all-time in the Super Bowl
If you’re looking for a blanket trend about whether Super Bowls are usually higher or lower scoring, you’re not going to find it. The over/under has been almost dead even historically, showing just how precise oddsmakers can be. We’ve already seen a little movement on the total this year, as it’s declined from an opener of around 57.5 down to 56 or 56.5. We like the under in this spot, as Tampa’s offense has benefitted from some short fields in recent weeks and Kansas City’s secondary is really underrated.
Patrick Mahomes is 15-8-1 ATS on the road
The Bucs will be the first team to ever play a Super Bowl in their home stadium, but that home-field advantage might not mean too much here. That’s because Mahomes has been dominant on the road in his career against the spread, making bettors a ton of cash along the way. We can’t say we disagree, as only three points seem pretty light here for what is clearly the best team in the league in Kansas City.
354 passing yards
The norm for Patrick Mahomes 💰
— Pickswise (@Pickswise) November 1, 2020
Tom Brady is 4-5 ATS in the Super Bowl
Brady will play in a legendary 10th Super Bowl here, and while he’s 6-3 straight up so far in title games, he’s actually been unprofitable with a 4-5 ATS record. That’s certainly interesting given his reputation for getting it done on the biggest stage.
Only one team has ever won the Super Bowl with a losing ATS record
Here’s one that plays against the Chiefs. The 2012 Ravens are the only team to win the Super Bowl despite having a losing ATS record on the season. The Chiefs are 8-10 ATS including the playoffs, and will look to become the second. Kansas City started the year off covering numbers, but then went 0-7-1 down the stretch as they won a lot of close-ish games as big favorites. Emphasis on the ‘ish’ there, as the Chiefs more often than not held big leads in the second half of those games before taking their foot off the gas and allowing for some backdoor covers. Take the first meeting between these teams for example, where Kansas City led by 17 with 12 minutes left before Tampa scored two late touchdowns to cut it to three.
In the past 15 Super Bowls, the team with the better regular-season record has won only twice
This one is pretty incredible. I wouldn’t read too much into it, but it’s interesting nonetheless.
Seven Super Bowls in the past 20 years have had totals in the 50s, five have gone under
Over the past couple of decades there have been a handful of games expected to be higher scoring, and the under is 5-2 in those particular matchups. Obviously, the intensity of a Super Bowl is quite high, and the physicality could help prevent most of them from turning into full-blown shootouts.
Brady is a slow starter in Super Bowls
Like I just mentioned, Brady has played in nine Super Bowls now, and it might surprise you to learn how many total points his teams have scored in the first quarter. Three. Across nine games. It’s pretty remarkable that he’s managed to go 6-3 straight up despite always starting so slow, so if you like the Bucs this trend might indicate that you might want to sit the first quarter out and then place a live wager.
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Be sure to check out our full-game preview Super Bowl LV:Last updated: Sat 6th February 2021