Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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Week 13 is shaping up to be a pivotal moment in the NFL season. We have plenty of storylines to monitor, but there are a few that stand out to me the most. AJ Brown faces his old team in the Tennessee Titans, Mike White gets a chance to prove himself against a playoff caliber team, Deshaun Watson makes his first start of the season, and Mike McDaniels vs Kyle Shanahan is must see tv. Did I forget to mention we get Joe Burrow vs Patrick Mahomes?
We do not have a double digit spread on Sunday, but Broncos vs Ravens is currently at +9.5. I’ve struggled of late in my player props, partially due to a few injuries and questionable second half performances, I’m talking to you Terry McLaurin. However, I’m ready to put that behind me and finish this NFL season. Make sure you’re following me on Twitter @PropHolliday!
Derek Carr (LVR) Over 1.5 Passing TD’s (-120)
Line Available on DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
I was expecting this line to be around -150 when it came out, but I’ll take a stab at the standard -120. Carr has hit this in 4 straight games and 8/12(66%) on the season, including the Week 1 matchup against the Chargers on the road. The Chargers have allowed opposing QBs to hit this mark in 2 straight games and 7/12(58%) on the season. The biggest change for Carr over the last 3 games has been the play of their offensive line. They are allowing pressure less than 15% of drop back’s and it’s giving Carr time to find his targets much deeper down field in the endzone. Of Carr 9 touchdown passes in the last 4 weeks, 6 have been for 25+ yards or more. The Chargers are only getting pressure on 17.6% of drop backs (29th overall). I’m expecting this to get heavily juiced by kickoff Sunday. I’m on this for 1U.
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Tyler Allgeier (ATL) Over 38.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Line Available on Caesar’s Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Allgeier and Patterson are forming quite the RB duo down in Atlanta. The rookie RB leads the team in rushing yards (552), is averaging 4.6 YPC, and 50.2 YPG. Patterson has two more carries than Allgeier since returning in Week 9, but they are coming off an even carry split vs Washington. The Steelers are allowing 27 carries per game on the road this season and even with Caleb Huntley grabbing a few carries, I have Allgeier pegged at 10 carries this Sunday. He’s hit this number in 4/5 home games so far and the Steelers are only averaging 15PPG on the road. A lower scoring affair should leave Allgeier plenty of opportunities to pound the ball late in the game and make this line easily achievable. The addition of Patterson has made Allgeier a more efficient runner. In November, Allgeier averaged a season high 6.1 Y/A and 57 YPG. 1U from me and you can play up to 41.5.
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Adam Thielen (MIN) Under 49.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Line Available on Caesar’s Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
The matchup of the day is Sauce Gardner against Justin Jefferson, but DJ Reed has been an unsung hero in this Jets secondary all season. He’s averaging a 57.1% reception rate on all targets and has only given up one reception of two receptions of 20+ yards all season. The most impressive stat to me is that he’s only allowed 65 yards of YAC through 11 games. Thielen has been a mixed bag this season at home. He’s 3-3 against this line in Minnesota but has struggled against the better defenses (Dallas-25 yards, Green Bay-36 yards) while he’s picked on the likes of Arizona (67) and Detroit (61). He’s had 4 or fewer receptions in 6/11 games and if he lands on 4 Sunday, I do not think he gets it done. Cousins under pressure crumbles. He’s completing only 48% of his passes when under pressure and the Jets are 5th in the NFL in pressure rate, but what makes it more impressive is that they blitz the 3rd fewest in the league. They’re getting pressure with their front four and maintaining solid coverage throughout the route. Recipe for disaster. The Jets are 2nd overall in DVOA vs WR2. 1U from me.
Amari Cooper (CLE) Over 4.5 Receptions (-114)
Line Available on Fanduel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
There is some unknown to this as Deshaun Watson makes his first start of the season, but I have confidence in him targeting his WR1 as he gets his legs back underneath him. Cooper has hit this in 2 of the last 3 games and has seen 10+ targets in 6/11 games this season. If we go back into the archives to check for Watson’s favoritism amongst receivers, the WR1 stands out clearly. In 2020, Brandon Cooks averaged 7.6 targets per game, in 2019 DeAndre Hopkins averaged 9.7 targets per game, and 2019 Hopkins at 7 targets per game. Cooper is having an exceptional season all things considered despite only catching 62.6% of his passes; that is the lowest number of his career. I attribute that largely in part to Jacoby Brissett’s inaccuracies as a QB and Watson returning should get him closer to that 70% number. Houston ranks 31st in DVOA vs WR1s and I’m looking at this as a buy low spot for Cooper who could continue to trend upward with Watson returning. 1U
Tyler Boyd (CIN) Over 3.5 Receptions (-129)
Line Available on Caesar’s Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Besides Joe Burrow, no one should be happier for Ja’Marr Chase returning than Tyler Boyd. He gets to return to his place as the forgotten man in this Bengals passing attack. While he remained in the slot during Chase’s absence, he’s was now getting WR2 attention from most secondaries and it had an impact on his production. Previous to Chase’s injury in Week 1, Boyd hit this line in 4/7 games vs 1/4 in his absence. While his targets increased over the last 4 weeks, his reception rate declined. Boyd should see more individual matchups in the middle of the field now that Chase is back manning the perimeter. Greg Dortch, Chris Godwin, Christian Kirk, and Keenan Allen all had success against the Chiefs defense out of the slot this season and hit this number. 1.5U from me.
Kyren Williams (LAR) Over 14.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Line available on DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
John Wolford is under center this week for the Rams, but I’m going back to Kyren Williams in the passing game regardless of who is at quarterback. Williams has seen his snap count grow every week since being activated Week 10 and he’s coming off 70% of the snaps. He’s entrenched as the 3rd down running back for LA and cleared this line in 2/3 games this season. The Seahawks rank 31st in DVOA against RBs and allow the 2nd most receiving yards per game to opposing RBs (54.9). Wolford being under center has a limited sample size, but he’s a fan of the checkdown; 67% of his passes in Week 10 were within 9 yards of the LOS. 8 running backs have hit this line against the Seahawks all season and I’m expecting Williams to be the 9th. 1U
Tyler Conklin (NYJ) Over 29.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Line available on DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Aside from Mike White stealing headlines, the Jets had another drastic change last week. They used the 12-personnell package a season high 51% of their offensive plays. And 17% higher than their previous season high. The results 8.6 yards per play, and 68% success rate. Conklin finished with 3 receptions for 50 yards, but with the game being out of hand, Conklin only saw 1 target in the 2H. There is a revenge factor in this as Conklin is formerly a Viking, but more importantly, Minnesota is giving up 11.14 Yards per Catch to opposing TEs. Conklin should see 4+ targets and has the potential to rip off a big play as we saw last week (29 yards). Fun fact, Tyler Conklin averaged 47.5 yards per game when Zach Wilson is NOT the starter. 1U
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