Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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We have reached the final weekend of the 2022 NFL regular season. This is bittersweet. I’ve enjoyed my first year at Pickswise despite a season filled with ups and downs. After a down week, I’m expecting a big bounce back on my part. Week 18 is an interesting one. There are few games with actual meaning and much of the playoff seeding is interconnected to other games results. Contract incentives play a role, as players look to hit milestones that will help them increase their wages for the season. Other teams are sitting some of their starters, which opens the door for backups to secure their spot on the roster heading into the offseason. I will be as selective as possible in my picks this week with all the factors being taken into consideration. Let’s end the regular season on a high note!
Check out all of our NFL predictions for Week 18
Tyler Higbee (LAR) Over 32.5 receiving yards (-115)
Line available on DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
This could be my favorite play of the entire Sunday slate. The LA Rams get to play spoiler to division rival Seattle Seahawks and help out old QB Jared Goff in the process. For Higbee, he’s seen his workload greatly increase since Baker has taken over in Week 14. The 7th-year TE hasn’t played less than 89% of the snaps since Baker’s arrival and has led the team in targets over the last 3 weeks (20). The Seahawks pose an interesting matchup for Higbee. They allow the 3rd most targets per game and most yards per game to opposing TEs. With Higbee never leaving the field and being Baker’s number one target of late, this line is extremely generous for someone who should see 6-7 targets on Sunday. Did I mention Higbee needs 13 yards for a $500K contract bonus? Yup, add it to the list. 1.5U
Our Week 18 mega parlay has +874 odds!
Tyler Boyd (CIN) Over 29.5 receiving yards (-114)
Line available on FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Tyler Boyd is licking his chops at this upcoming matchup. Rookie safety Kyle Hamilton has been the teams slot corner over the last 4 weeks and the results are not promising. Among qualified players (min 150 snaps), Hamilton ranks 34th out of 35 on how many snaps per reception (5.9), i.e he’s giving up a reception every 6 plays he’s on the field. He’s allowing a QB rating of 106.5 when targeted (23/35) and he’s given up this line in 4 straight games. I love Boyd in this spot and the 29.5 seems to be an oversight in a game that will ensure a home playoff game for the Bengals. If the Bengals lose to the Ravens, the location of their first round Wild Card matchup will be determined by a coin flop. The Bengals currently sit at -9.5 favorites, and I expect them to run through a Lamar Jackson-less Ravens team. 1.5U.
Kenny Pickett (PIT) longest completion Under 32.5 yards (-110)
Line available on BetMGM Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
The Browns have not given up this line in 3 straight weeks and only twice over the last 8 games. The Steelers offense has been riding Najee Harris (and Jaylen Warren) heavily over the last 3 weeks and will need to continue that path if they want a shot at the playoffs. For Pickett, he’s not stretching the field as a starting QB, but that was never his strong suit. He’s ranked dead last amongst 22 qualified QBs in ADOT (25.7) and 19th in NFL Passer Rating on deep throws (59.9) ahead of only Jacoby Brissett, Marcus Mariota, and Kyler Murray. As far as frequency, only 11.1% of his attempts are deep throws and his opportunities will be limited as the Steelers look to control the ball on the ground. Pickett has only hit this line once in the last 4 weeks. 1U.
Chris Olave (NO) Over 65.5 receiving yards (-120)
Line available at BetMGM Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Olave looks to finish a strong rookie season against an ideal matchup in the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers’ secondary is banged up without Jaycee Horn and CJ Henderson who he will draw in coverage is one of the worst cover corners in the league (114th out of 117 according to PFF). Olave needs 155 yards to take over the Saints rookie receiving record, and while I do not think he hits that milestone he should be in for a big day nonetheless. His best game of the season came against the Panthers in Week 3, going off 9 receptions on 13 targets and 147 yards. The Saints are looking to close out the season on a 4-game winning streak, so some motivation applies. 1U.
Zack Moss (IND) Over 64.5 rushing yards (-110)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Moss has seen double-digit carries in 3 straight weeks and has hit this line in 3 straight, as well. The Texans are easily the worst rush defense in the league and winning this game would be disastrous to their hopes of claiming the #1 overall pick in this year’s draft. The Colts will trot out Sam Ehlinger to close the season and at no point do I see them having to abandon the run. Moss should see another 14+ carry day and I believe finds the endzone at some point. 0.5U.
Curtis Samuel (WAS) Over 25.5 receiving yards (-110)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Sam Howell gets his first career start this season for the Commanders and it will be important to get him comfortable early. For that reason, Samuel aligns as a key target for Howell in this game. Samuel’s aDOT is a mere 7 yards on the season and will be a great safety blanket or screen target while Howell gets his feet wet. The line is attractive enough requiring only 26 yards and he’s hit this in 12 of 16 games. I expect Ron Rivera to scheme Samuel open to allow him to make plays with his legs and take pressure off of Howell from having to push the ball down field, at least early on. 1U.
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