Best Super Bowl Player Prop Bets: Chiefs Edition

Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Tyreek Hill runs with the ball during divisional round win over Cleveland Browns
Photo of PropBetGuy

PropBetGuy

NFL

Show Bio

More commonly known as @PropBetGuy on Twitter, Doug Carter has been crunching the numbers on player props for years. He's also a staunch defender of future Hall of Famer, Eli Manning.

The reigning Super Bowl champs, Kansas City Chiefs, will look to make it two in a row on Sunday. Patrick Mahomes and company face off against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. With the Chiefs opening as short favorites, and a game total at over/under 56, this game is sure to feature plenty of offense. Make sure you check out our full-game preview for the huge matchup, which includes picks on the side and total, and to also check out our Super Bowl Hub to ensure you’re as informed as possible before making any wagers.

As always, the Chiefs present so many great opportunities for player props. With a potent passing attack, and banged up running game, there seems to be a direct correlation between the strengths and weaknesses of Kansas City’s offense and Tampa’s defense. With my two props, I’m looking to exploit just that.

Tyreek Hill over 6.5 receptions

Line available at publishing. Over 7.5 receptions at +130 playable for a half unit.

The Chiefs have set Hill loose this postseason. “Cheetah” reeled in 17 catches on 21 targets through the first two games. During the regular season, Hill caught 87 passes in 15 games. While this line represents a bump from his average production, Hill did erupt for 13 catches for 269 yards and three touchdowns in Week 12 versus Tampa.

In that matchup, Hill roasted the Bucs’ best cornerback, Carlton Davis. Davis, along with Tampa’s other cornerbacks, are better suited against the bigger, physical receivers. With his quickness off the line and his world-class speed, Cheetah presents a matchup nightmare for the Bucs. Six of Hill’s 13 catches in their first matchup went for 20+ yards, and his average target depth was 15 yards. Tampa allowed the fifth-shortest target depth this season (7.6 yards) and I fully expect them to sell-out to protect from Hill breaking off long gains over the top.

Also, the state of the Chiefs offensive line can’t be ignored. Already down two starters, and possibly a third (pending center Daniel Kilgore’s COVID contact tracing results), Kansas City is forced to re-shuffle their front five. The Bucs generate pressure 28 percent of the time (third-most in the NFL), and recorded the fourth-most sacks (48). This, coupled with Mahomes’ lingering toe injury, likely means Kansas City will be forced to get the ball out quick. Versus the Bills, 30 of 38 of Mahomes’ passes traveled less than 10 yards from the line of scrimmage (79 percent). In the regular season, this split was 63 percent.

Ten of Cheetah’s 17 catches this postseason have traveled less than 10 air yards. I fully expect the Chiefs to utilize his quickness on the shallow/intermediate routes. Given his 28 percent postseason target share, I have Hill projected at 11 targets and eight catches.

Darrel Williams under 45.5 rushing + receiving yards

Line available at publishing. Would play down to under 43.5 yards.

With injuries to Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Le’Veon Bell, Williams has come alive as the Chiefs’ number one running back this postseason. However, Edwards-Helaire is expected to be fully healthy for Sunday, and Bell seemingly has a chance to be active as well. While Williams might assume de-facto lead back duties, I don’t see him getting a full workload.

With Edwards-Helaire returning from injury last week, he outsnapped Williams on offense 32 to 30. Williams did out-touch the rookie 14-7, as he picked up the majority of the carries. Edwards-Helaire was the preferred receiving back outsnapping Williams 26-14 on pass plays.

The Buccaneers possess the best rush defense in the NFL, allowing the fewest rush attempts, yards per carry, and yards. Beyond that, the Chiefs will be playing with backups on the offensive line, specifically at right guard and possibly center. Williams (and the Chiefs run game in general) had their most success running towards the right this season. So even if Williams leads the team in carries, success will be difficult to come by.

Williams was by far the least efficient pass catcher amongst the Chiefs running backs. His 0.64 yards per route run rank behind Edwards-Helaire (0.97) and Bell (0.86).

I’m of the belief that a healthy Edwards-Helaire will garner a larger share of carries in this one. Williams will command some snaps, but with the Chiefs looking towards their quick passing game, I see a reduced role for the third year back. I have his total yardage projected in the mid-30s.

Make sure you also check out my Tampa Bay Buccaneers player props for Super Bowl 55.

Free Super Bowl Picks and Predictions

Be sure to check out our full-game preview for the big matchup:

We’ve also got plenty of expert articles to make sure you’re fully informed before making your Super Bowl bets:

Pickswise is the home of NFL Picks. Check out our latest playoff picks and round-by-round analysis as well as our free Super Bowl predictions.

 

Virginia Bonuses

See All
FanDuel Sportsbook

$125

Bet $5, Get $125 in Free Bets - Guaranteed!

Sign up for a new FanDuel Sportsbook account and make your first deposit of $10+

Place your first bet up of $5 on any sport

Receive $125 in free bets regardless of the outcome of your wager

Must be 21+. First online real money wager only. $10 first deposit required. Bonus issued as non-withdrawable free bets that expire 14 days after receipt. See full terms at fanduel.com/sportsbook.

Unibet

$100

Get a $100 Risk-Free Bet!

Register for a new Unibet account & make a deposit

Place your first bet up to $100 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $100

New players only. Terms & conditions apply. 21+. VA only.

FanDuel Sportsbook

$1,000

Get a $1,000 No Sweat First Bet

Sign up for a new FanDuel Sportsbook account and make your first deposit of $10+

Place your first bet up to $1,000!

Get refunded if you lose up to $1,000

Must be 21+. First online real money wager only. $10 first deposit required. Bonus issued as non-withdrawable free bets that expire 14 days after receipt. See full terms at fanduel.com/sportsbook.

BetRivers

$500

Get a $500 Risk-Free Bet!

Sign up for a new BetRivers account using promo code PICKSWISE

Make your first deposit & get up to $500 in free bets

To get $500 in free bets, wager $500

Must be 21+. Play in IA Only. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-BETS OFF

BetMGM

$200

Bet $10, Win $200 if Any NBA Team Hits a Three Pointer!

Sign up for a new betting account with BetMGM

Place a pre-game moneyline wager of at least $10 on a NBA game

Win $200 in free bets if any team hits a three pointer

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

DraftKings

$150

Bet $5 & Win $150 If Your First Moneyline Bet Wins!

Sign up for a new account with DraftKings Sportsbook and make your first deposit

Bet $5+ on the pre-game Moneyline in any sport

Win $200 if your team wins

Offer valid for new players only. Must be 21 years or older to play. Reward paid in site credit. Full terms available at DraftKings Sportsbook.

PointsBet

$800

Get 4x $200 In Free Bets!

Sign up for a new PointsBet account

Bet up to $200 and If you lose, you get a refund

You will receive Free Bet(s) in the amount of the losing wager(s), up to $200 each for four days.

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

Caesars Sportsbook

$1,250

Get a $1,250 risk-free bet

Sign up for a new Caesars Sportsbook account

Place your first bet of $10 or more

If your first bet loses, you’ll receive a refund up to $1,250 from Caesars in free bets

21+. Terms and conditions apply.

BetMGM

$200

Bet $10, Get $200 if Any NHL Team Scores A Goal

Sign up for a new betting account with BetMGM

Place a pre-game moneyline wager of at least $10 on a NHL game

Win $200 in free bets if any teams scores a goal

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

BetMGM

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet

Register for a new BetMGM & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

PointsBet

$500

Get 5x $100 in Free Bets

Sign up for a new PointsBet account

Make a bet of up to $100 and receive a refund if you lose

Get this offer once a day for the first 5 days you sign up

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

DraftKings

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Deposit Bonus

Register for a new DraftKings Sportsbook account & deposit

DraftKings will match 20% of your deposit up to $1,000 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $500

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

PointsBet

$2,000

Get $2,000 in Free Bets

Register for a new PointsBet account & deposit

Receive a free bet refund up to $500 if your first fixed odds bet loses

& a free bet refund up to $1,500 if your first two PointsBetting Wager loses

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

Monkey Knife Fight

$100

Claim Instant Deposit Match up to $100 + Free $5 game

Register for a Monkey Knife Fight account & deposit using promo code PICKSWISE100

Monkey Knife Fight will match your first deposit up to $100

Deposit $100 and you'll get $100 bonus + a free $5 game

18+. Terms and conditions apply. You must live in one of the states where real money DFS is legal.

TVG

$200

Get Your First Single-Horse Win Wager Back Up to $200 if you don't win

Register for a new TVG account and make a deposit

Place your first single horse win-type bet up to $200

If your horse doesn't win you'll get a refund up to $300

21+. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly.

TwinSpires

$200

Get a $200 Sign-Up Bonus with Twinspires Racebook!

Open your TwinSpires.com account using offer code BET200

$200 bonus cash will be credited in increments of $100 for every $400 wagered

To earn the full $200 bonus players must wager $800 within 30 days

21+. Terms and conditions apply.

Underdog Fantasy

$100

First deposit is 100% matched up to $100 with Underdog Fantasy

Sign up for a new account with Underdog Fantasy

Make your first deposit

Every dollar (up to $100) will be matched! Deposit $25, get $50; deposit $100, get $200, etc

Must be 21+ to play. Terms & conditions apply