NFL public betting trends, where the public money is going for the conference championships
The NFL playoffs are winding down, but we’ve still got two great games left before the Super Bowl. Betting volume will be off the charts at all sportsbooks for championship weekend. Pro football might be the only market where the general public bets with heavy enough volume to shift the lines. Public sentiment can change perception and often create value, so it’s important to track which teams are being heavily pounded by the NFL public.
The average joe isn’t always too sharp, so there’s often value in fading them. Each week we’ve been bringing you the consensus NFL public picks, betting trends that can be very useful. Here are the bets with the most popular support for the conference championships:
Green Bay Packers – 78%
The Packers have been a staple in this column each week of the season, why would it be any different now? A whopping 78 percent of bettors are backing them on the spread, per DraftKings sportsbooks numbers. It’s strange to see the public going so heavily against Tom Brady in a playoff game, but they understandably think it would be pretty hard for a team to win three straight road games in the postseason.
It’s also tough for any team from a warm climate to come into Lambeau in January, and that was on full display in the Packers’ dominant win over the Rams in the divisional round. I can’t say I disagree with the public on this one.
Packers/Buccaneers over – 78%
78 percent of the bets are on the over here as well, and again I can’t say I disagree. Green Bay’s offense has been a juggernaut, and the only reason Tampa’s defense looked solid this past week is because Drew Brees can no longer throw the ball further than 10 yards down field. The week before that, they made former UDFA Taylor Heinicke look like a franchise quarterback in the wild card round. One can only imagine what Aaron Rodgers will do to them.
Rodgers just hung 32 points on a Rams defense that was the best in the entire NFL this season, so I don’t think he’ll have much difficulty moving the ball here. Green Bay’s defense also didn’t look like anything special last week as they let Jared Goff look serviceable and Cam Akers run loose. This one could be a shootout.
Buffalo Bills money line – 62%
The spread and total for the Bills/Chiefs game are both being split very evenly as of Friday, but 62 percent of the money line bets are on the Bills. The NFL public loves them a money line underdog. Patrick Mahomes is officially playing, but clearly the public doesn’t care too much. It’s interesting because Buffalo hasn’t looked too great in their first two playoff wins, barely squeaking by the Colts and then winning an ugly game against the Ravens.
Josh Allen certainly hasn’t been his best, and out-dueling Mahomes on his home turf will be an uphill task. Kansas City wasn’t in any danger from the Browns before Mahomes got hurt, and Indianapolis was able to move the ball all game on Buffalo. It would be a great story, but I think the Chiefs are going back to the Super Bowl.
Davante Adams first touchdown scorer (+525) – 31%
31 percent of the bets are on Adams to be the first scorer in the Packers/Buccaneers game at +525 odds. The next highest is Aaron Jones (+850) at 10 percent, so Adams is the clear top choice here. Adams has scored a touchdown in 11 of his past 12 games, so I certainly think he makes some sense here. That being said, Jones has five touchdowns in his last three playoff games, and since I’d be nearly evenly split between the two I’d rather grab the steeper odds with Jones.
Aaron Rodgers to be Super Bowl MVP (+325) – 20%
You can bet the Super Bowl MVP two weeks out, and right now bettors are liking Rodgers. The next highest is Josh Allen (+475) at 10 percent. Patrick Mahomes (+300) is at nine percent and Tom Brady (+625) is at seven percent. If I had to choose one here I’d go either Rodgers or Mahomes, since they’re easily the two likeliest to win the Super Bowl, but I don’t see a ton of value here with anybody.
Free NFL Playoffs Championship Round Picks and Predictions
Be sure to check out our full-game previews for every matchup in the divisional round:Last updated: Sat 23rd January 2021