BetsByBob's Wednesday MLB Picks: Mets' strong pitching advantage being overlooked
After a disappointing 0-2 showing on the bases yesterday, we are back at it here today. It’s Wednesday, so that means a lot of day baseball giving teams time to hit the road. The Angels lost 6-0 yesterday to the Athletics, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. The Angels left 17 men on base, compared to the Athletics 6, and they only managed one less hit. There were plenty of opportunities for the Angels, they just couldn’t capitalize on them. I am only pointing this out to show that you can make a good bet on a game and have it lose still.
You need to be able to look back and see if things went how you thought they would, regardless of the final score at the end. I know the win or loss on the ticket is what really matters, but it’s good for the process moving forward. With that said, and the lack of time with the early game times, let’s get into my plays for today.
New York Mets (Marcus Stroman) @ Cincinnati Reds (Jeff Hoffman)
Play: Mets (-131)
*Playable to (-140)
I actually bet this game overnight as soon as I saw the pitching matchup and the line. This just makes no sense to me, and feels really short. After digging more into it I couldn’t find anything to make me think otherwise. The Mets aren’t a good offensive team right now, so that could play a part. Injuries have killed them recently, on both sides of the ball. The Reds bullpen is a disaster though as well, and have also dealt with their fair share of injuries. Just how it goes sometimes, but I give the Mets a huge edge here in the pitching matchup.
Marcus Stroman gets the nod for the Mets, and he has had a great season so far. He comes in with an ERA of 2.79 with a FIP of 3.61, and other than Jacob DeGrom, he has been their most consistent pitcher this season. He has a good pitching profile that plays well in hitter-friendly Great American ballpark. Stroman has a ground ball rate of 49.7% and limits the longball well. He has held opposing hitters to a slugging percentage of .339. While the Reds also have a good lineup, I trust Stroman here much more than I do Jeff Hoffman.
Jeff Hoffman is making his first start since May 21, and was one of my favorite pitchers to bet against prior to that. He has an ERA of 4.61 and a FIP of 4.66, so on the surface, it doesn’t look that bad. Hoffman has zero control though. He walks batters at a rate of 14.4% and leaves a ton of his pitches that are strikes right in the middle of the plate. With only 41 innings under his belt in the big leagues so far, I am not sure his command will be any better here today. This feels like a really good price for the Mets, and one I couldn’t pass up playing.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds
Minnesota Twins (Michael Pineda) @ Chicago White Sox (Dylan Cease)
Play: White Sox -1 (+101)
*Playable to White Sox -1 (-110)
The Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox look to wrap up their 4-game series here on Wednesday. The White Sox have taken 2 of 3 so far, and would like to leave town with this last one as well. This matchup has turned into quite the little rivalry ever since Josh Donaldson ran his mouth about a month back or so. I feel as if they have played each other every other week since then. It’s good for the sport to have those little rivalries. It makes the players want to play a bit harder, and in my opinion makes the game more entertaining.
Michael Pineda will get the task of shutting down this White Sox lineup, and it’s not an easy one. The White Sox have been one of the best hitting lineups in baseball, and they have continued to do so while getting bit with the injury bug all season. Pineda has an ERA of 4.11 with a FIP of 4.45, and gives up a HardHit% of 43.5%. He has been a so-so pitcher for a few years now, but this White Sox lineup has seen him a good amount and found success off him. Over 100 plate appearances and as a team they are batting .330 against him. The familiarity helps, and the offense for the White Sox has been clicking lately.
Dylan Cease gets the nod for the White Sox, and is someone that I am high on. He has an ERA of 4.15 with a FIP of 3.68, mostly due to a high BABIP of .308. Cease does a great job limiting hard contact, to a rate of 36.4%, and does a good job keeping hitters from barreling him up. He also has prolific stuff, and strikes out opposing hitters 30% of the time. The BABIP should come down with some better luck, and the stuff is certainly there for Cease. Taking the White Sox -1 here for some small plus money, as I feel like they should be able to win this one rather comfortably.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox