Ricky Dimon
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Arguably the marquee matchup of the entire NFL playoffs Divisional Round will take place on Sunday afternoon. The Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals are set to square off in what is a battle between two very realistic Super Bowl contenders.
Below is our SGP for the second AFC Divisional Round showdown, and also be sure to check out our full Cincinnati Bengals vs Buffalo Bills picks on the side and total.
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Bengals +3.5 alternate spread (+112)
Under 49.5 (-114)
Ja’Marr Chase to score a touchdown (+125)
Parlay odds: +760
Part of the value in same game parlays, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. We are doing a little bit of both here, as Ja’Marr Chase scoring a touchdown obviously works well with a Bengals bet but goes against an under play. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
Cincinnati Bengals +3.5 alternate spread over Buffalo Bills (+112)
The Bills may have a better record than the Bengals (13-3 compared to 12-4), but a 1-game difference is hardly notable over the entire regular season and it is actually Cincinnati that has more momentum right now. The Bengals have won 9 games in a row following their Wild Card Round success against Baltimore. It should also be noted that these are the defending AFC champions we are talking about. They know how to get it done in the playoffs, including on the road – they prevailed in the hostile environments of Tennessee and Kansas City en route to last year’s Super Bowl.
With Cincy’s defense in fine form and Chase hauling in passes from Joe Burrow left and right, I like the visitors’ chances. Cincinnati is a +5.5 underdog on the official spread, but I’m willing to play this at anything more than a field goal. A potentially low-scoring affair (at least relative to the 49.5 total) in cold and possibly snowy conditions has a field-goal margin written all over it.
Under 49.5 (-114)
Although Burrow and Chase may be on a roll, it should not be overlooked that the Bengals’ defense is a huge reason for their 9-game winning streak. They have allowed more than 18 points only twice over the last 7 games and never more than 24. It’s no secret that the Bills’ defense has mostly been stellar (aside from last weekend against Miami), while on the other side of the ball Allen is starting to look a little bit shaky. Cold temperatures and the potential for now certainly don’t help the offensive prospects, so the under is a much safer play than the over.
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Ja’Marr Chase to score a touchdown (+125)
This is also one of my best touchdown scorer bets, and why not? Chase found the endzone 9 times in 12 regular-season games, including 7 in the last 7. He also scored in last weekend’s victory over the Ravens, on whom he pinned 84 yards while catching 9 of 12 targets. Now, the former LSU star faces a Bills defense that underwhelmed against 3rd-string quarterback Skylar Thompson and the Dolphins in round one.
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