Caleb Wilfinger
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We’re in for what could be one of the most consequential Pac-12 games of the season this week when the Washington Huskies head to Los Angeles for a date with the USC Trojans. There are Pac-12 and College Football Playoff implications on the line, as the Huskies will need to win on the road in order to have the inside track on both fronts. This is a spot where the underdog is certainly barking, but I’m more inclined to look toward the favorite and some player props in this contest.
Here is my Washington vs USC Same Game Parlay for Saturday’s matchup, which will be televised starting at 7:30 pm ET on ABC. Also, be sure to check out our full Washington vs USC predictions.
Washington team total over 39.5 (-110)
MarShawn Lloyd over 72.5 rushing yards (-110)
Ja’Lynn Polk to record a touchdown (-170)
Same Game Parlay odds: +450
One of the benefits of Same Game Parlays, of course, is that you can correlate the plays. That is some of the plan here, as a Washington team total over correlates with Ja’Lynn Polk scoring a touchdown, while we’re also getting value on our SGP by including a USC player prop.
Washington Huskies team total over 39.5 (-110)
I’ve already written about this game extensively this week, but most of the talk about this game has revolved around two things; USC’s defensive struggles and Washington’s poor last couple of performances. While a close game against a rising Arizona State team was to be expected after the Huskies knocked off Oregon the previous week, a scratchy performance against Stanford the following week was concerning. However, even with some sloppier than usual execution, Washington still put up 42 points, Penix threw for nearly 400 yards in the game and the Huskies likely win by closer to 20 points if it wasn’t for a pair of red-zone turnovers in the fourth quarter. As long as Penix and this offense are operating at 75% capacity or better, it shouldn’t take much to shred this USC defense.
Not only is USC stepping up in class in this game, but this will be the 7th conference contest in a row without a bye week for the Trojans, a stretch that has included close wins against Colorado, California and Arizona, plus a pair of losses to Notre Dame and Utah. I can assure you that if there was ever a time for Washington’s offense to hang a big number and break out of its mini-slump, this would be the week, especially considering the national spotlight on this game. Conversely, I expect USC to put up plenty of points and play at a quick pace throughout the game, so we should see plenty of possessions in this one. Games involving USC are 8-1 to the over this season for a reason, so instead of worrying about Washington needing to win by a certain margin, I’ll keep fading a USC defense that has allowed 40+ points in 4 of its last 5 outings.
MarShawn Lloyd over 72.5 rushing yards (-110)
A lot of the talk around USC has to do with its passing game, and for good reason. After all, Caleb Williams leads one of the best passing attacks in the nation and is expected to be the top pick in next year’s NFL Draft. However, the running game in Southern California is quietly slept on, with MarShawn Lloyd having racked up 766 yards on the ground this season while averaging 7.7 yards per carry. Lloyd should welcome this matchup against a Washington defense that is dealing with some significant injuries up front and has really struggled to stop the run over the last month or so. The Huskies are 97th in rushing success rate on defense this season and Lloyd has gone over this number in 7 of USC’s 9 games in 2023. Let’s go back to the well for this parlay leg.
We have NCAAF picks for all the biggest games this week
Ja’Lynn Polk to score a touchdown (-170)
There will undoubtedly be a ton of attention on Odunze this week, and for good reason. However, this leaves Ja’Lynn Polk as the secondary option who is very likely to receive a ton of attention from his veteran quarterback. Polk has impressed this season, especially with Jalen McMillan sidelined with an injury in recent weeks, racking up 100 or more yards in 6 of Washington’s 8 games this season, while also recording 8 touchdowns over the same number of contests. With so much attention and focus devoted to slowing down the Penix to Odunze connection, Polk should be in good position to find the end zone once again on Saturday against a USC defense that can’t stop a nosebleed. There’s a reason why this prop is heavily juiced after all, but it provides us with plenty of value as a 3rd leg of our parlay.
