Andrew Ortenberg
Show Bio
We’ve got some nice NBA playoffs, NHL playoffs, and MLB action to report on Monday, so it’s a full day. There are a lot of big games, which always attract some big public sides. Let’s take a look at where the public money is going as bettors once again try to beat the books, with the Suns leading the way.
NBA: Suns -1 @ Clippers
The public was on the Suns to close out the series in Game 5. They got burned when the Clippers went into Phoenix and picked up a big win, but that wasn’t enough to scare bettors away. The public is going back to Phoenix, with 74 percent of the bets and 72 percent of the money laying the one point with the Suns, per DraftKings’ internal numbers shared with us.
The Suns have been shooting the ball poorly in this series, and have still managed to acquire a 3-2 lead. That speaks volumes. If Devin Booker and Chris Paul can just play like the All-Stars that they are, they’ll have a decisive advantage. After all, they managed to win Game 4 in Los Angeles despite Booker and Paul combining to go 14/44. For that reason, we’ve got to take the Suns here as well.
MLB: Red Sox -167 vs. Royals
Looking at the baseball slate now, bettors are lining up to back Boston. To be fair, this might be more of a fade of Kansas City than anything else. The Royals have lost seven in a row entering this one. Accordingly, 86 percent of the bets and 85 percent of the money are on Kansas City’s money line.
However, it’s not like the Royals have been a complete doormat. The offense has actually been hitting pretty well, and they lost the first two games of this series by a single run both times. They scored at least five in each of those games. The Red Sox will also start Martin Perez here, who has a 6.00 ERA at home this season. We think there’s some value with a contrarian play here, so we’re taking the Royals as a significant underdog on the money line and fading the public.
MLB: Orioles @ Astros over 9.5
Nothing the public loves more than a good over. The heavy baseball total side of the day is the over 9.5 here in Houston. 78 percent of the bets and 91 percent of the money are banking on a high-scoring affair between the Orioles and Astros. With Matt Harvey on the mound for Baltimore, it’s hard to argue too much.
Harvey has been arguably the worst starter in the majors, entering with a 7.54 ERA. Now he’s going up against an Astros lineup that is arguably the best in the majors. Baltimore’s offense has been doing their part too, scoring 22 runs through the first two games of this series. Everything points toward a lot of fireworks in this one, so we’re taking the over as well.
NHL: Canadiens @ Lightning under 5
Finishing things up with some playoff hockey and the start of the Stanley Cup Finals. Now here’s something we don’t see every day, a public under. However, bettors seem to be making an exception for this series, as they were on the under in Game 1 also. 56 percent of the bets and 68 percent of the money are on the under five here.
The split between those two percentages indicates there have been some large volume wagers on the under as well. 71 percent of the bets and 65 percent of the money are on Tampa’s money line at -220 for what that’s worth. The first game went over as the Lightning scored five goals, so this one is interesting. Montreal only scored one in the series opener, and they know they aren’t equipped to win a shootout. As such they should slow things down, so we’re taking the under here too.
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