Dallas Cowboys vs Jacksonville Jaguars NFL predictions, picks, odds & spreads: Cowboys to roll on the road

dallas cowboys quarterback dak prescott

The Dallas Cowboys and Jacksonville Jaguars both occupy 2nd place in their divisions heading into NFL Week 15 — even though the Cowboys (10-3) have twice as many wins as the Jags (5-8)! Dallas needs more wins, however, with the Eagles still 2 games ahead in the NFC East race with games running out, while the Jaguars have won 2 of their last 3 games and are not yet eliminated from playoff contention. Our expert has picks, predictions and best bets for this Cowboys vs Jaguars Week 15 matchup at TIAA Bank Field.

Be sure not to miss any of our NFL picks for Week 15 — we went 11-2 on sides in Week 14!

NFL Dallas Cowboys vs Jacksonville Jaguars expert predictions

The Cowboys have not given up hope of catching the Eagles in the NFC East yet, although they will need some outside help to get their hands on the divisional title. A run of 4 straight wins over the Vikings, Giants, Colts and Texans have lifted them to an impressive 10-3 record, which is the joint 2nd-best record in the league, but still only 2nd-best in their division. It’s also slightly misleading, as the Cowboys have played 8 of their 9 home games already, but only 5 on the road, which is why they’re heading out to Florida on Sunday.

The Jaguars have had their moments this season, but it remains an uphill struggle after a 5-game losing streak which followed their 2-1 start. They’ve won 3 of 5 since, though, with the losses to the Chiefs and a rampant Lions team, and QB Trevor Lawrence has shown flashes of being the player he was expected to be when he was drafted first overall last year. Last week’s road win over the Titans should certainly have been a reminder to Dallas that they will not be pushovers in this home contest.

Dallas Cowboys vs Jacksonville Jaguars spread, odds & betting lines

Odds courtesy of BetMGM at time of publishing.

Point spread: Cowboys -4, Jaguars +4
Total points over/under: 48 points
Money line odds: Cowboys -200, Jaguars +165

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Dallas Cowboys vs Jacksonville Jaguars expert picks

We’ve got 2 smart NFL picks for the game between the Cowboys and Jaguars.

Cowboys vs Jaguars point spread pick: Cowboys -3.5 (-110)

This is probably one of the more intriguing games to bet this week, as we know there is always a tax on the Cowboys due to how much the public bets them. But this line opened at Dallas -6 and it has already dropped to as low as -3.5. That sounds like a lot of money coming in on the Jaguars, which poses the question as to whether or not people are overreacting to what we saw last week. The Cowboys struggled to beat the Texans and failed to cover a mammoth -17.5 spread, while the Jaguars handily beat the Titans. We know Jacksonville is better than Houston, but are we that concerned that the Cowboys can’t beat them by a touchdown?

From just a straight football standpoint, the only legitimate concern for the Cowboys is their offensive line. Tyron Smith is making his way back, but losing Terence Steele means an aging Jason Peters will start at right tackle and that could make it difficult for Dak Prescott to stay set in the pocket. Some designed roll-outs might be in order so that Dallas can expose the Jaguars’ 30th-ranked pass defense. Defensively, Dallas has a hole at slot corner and while that may free up Christian Kirk at times, its pass rush is elite and the ‘Boys do an excellent job forcing turnovers. As exciting as the Jaguars have been, I will lean toward the team that is 8-5 against the spread this season as opposed to the one that is 5-8. 

Be sure to check out our full Cowboys vs Jaguars predictions

Cowboys vs Jaguars over/under totals pick: Over 47.5 (-110)

The over is 7-6 for both the Cowboys and the Jaguars this season. The 47.5 over/under seems fairly accurate, but it’s worth noting that Cowboys games have gone over this mark in 5 of their last 6 and over in each of the last 3 games for both teams. Each side possesses the firepower to score, so it comes down to how strong they are defensively. The Cowboys’ defense ranks 1st overall in DVOA, 2nd in sacks and 2nd in takeaways. Their pass-rush is elite and they aren’t giving up many rushing yards per game, either.

However, the loss of Jourdan Lewis and the questionable status of Trevon Diggs should mean that Christian Kirk –Trevor Lawrence’s top target — is in for a big game. The Jaguars’ defense ranks just 28th in DVOA. They are giving up the 5th-most passing yards per game this season and the 10th-most rushing yards per game over the last 3 weeks. Between both teams, we should see more than enough points scored.

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