Expert MLB best bets, picks and predictions today, 9/27: Rays and Red Sox duel in Boston
Just a few days remain in the MLB regular season, so I’m being very selective with my bets. Some teams have thrown in the towel and are calling up Triple-A prospects to give them a taste of the show while other teams heading to the playoffs may choose to rest star players in their lineup before October baseball starts. Either way, it makes it a little more difficult to predict. That’s why after yesterday’s MLB best bet win, I’m sticking with just one pick again.
Tampa Bay Rays ML over Boston Red Sox (-125)
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
You know that expression, “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it”? Well, that’s what I’m doing here. Yesterday’s best bet was for the Rays to win the series opener, and they jumped out to a quick 7-0 lead and won the game. That win was impressive to me because they did not have Yandy Diaz, Randy Arozarena or Harold Ramirez in the starting lineup. Those three are usually the 1-2-3 hitters in their lineup, so not having any of them was a huge deal. However, I am optimistic that at least one of them will play today. Ramirez appeared as a pinch-hitter in last night’s game, which means he should be back today after a rest day. As for Arozarena, he actually asked Kevin Cash to play last night, but Cash held him out. Since the Rays have an off day tomorrow before their final series of the season, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Diaz and/or Arozarena in the lineup since they already have tomorrow off. That would be a huge boost for their lineup, but they likely won’t need to provide that much run support since Tyler Glasnow is on the hill.
In 20 starts, Glasnow has a 3.68 ERA and a stunning 32.7% strikeout rate. More recently, Glasnow has held hitters to a .198 xBA with a 33% strikeout rate in 5 starts in September. One of those outings came against the Red Sox, and it was his best start of the season. He went 6 innings and allowed 1 run and 3 hits while striking out a season-high 14 hitters. That means 14 of the 18 outs were via strikeout! But that wasn’t the only time he faced the Red Sox. A few months ago, Glasnow threw 5.1 innings in Boston and surrendered 1 run and 4 hits while recording 6 strikeouts. His success against the Red Sox does not appear to be a fluke because Boston’s hitters have a horrible track record against Glasnow in their careers. Between Rafael Devers, Justin Turner, Alex Verdugo, Adam Duvall, Masataka Yoshida and Trevor Story, they are a combined 12-for-65 (.185) with 26 strikeouts.
On the mound for the Red Sox is Brayan Bello, who is a bright spot in the organization, but has struggled in the last few weeks. Bello owns a 7.65 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP in 4 starts this month. In those 4 starts, Bello has allowed a .304 batting average and a 41% hard-hit rate. And unlike Boston’s lineup against Glasnow, the Tampa Bay offense has mashed Bello in their careers. Between Josh Lowe, Yandy Diaz, Randy Arozarena, Harold Ramirez, Jonathan Aranda and Manuel Margot, they are 14-for-34 (.412) with 6 extra-base hits. For the second day in a row, I’m backing the Rays for a 1.5-unit play in Boston.
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