Golf picks: Arnold Palmer Invitational predictions & best bets from Joe Champion

Ludvig Aberg hits his tee shot on the 11th hole during the first round of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am golf tournament at Spyglass Hill Golf Course.
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Joe Champion


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Golf and soccer analyst for Pickswise, while also an avid tennis fan. One of very few Milton Keynes Dons soccer fans. For Joe Champion media enquiries, please email
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The PGA Tour’s Florida Swing continues with the latest Signature Event, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, where former champions Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy are the big 2 players in the market at the King’s Bay Hill Lodge. As has been the case with the new Signature Events, the Arnold Palmer Invitational features a smaller field with a $20 million purse and all of the PGA Tour’s big names — with the exception of Tony Finau — will be in attendance.

Bay Hill, a water-laden, tough and testing layout, demands tee-to-green excellence and, in the main, accuracy, although Bryson DeChambeau famously muscled his way to the title in 2021. Kurt Kitayama put his power to good use to cause a shock last year too but class often wins out at a course where Tiger Woods has won 8 times and while Scheffler and McIlroy are the 2 who dominate the betting, the former continues to struggle on the greens and the latter looked a little bit off when 21st at the Cognizant Classic.

Arnold Palmer Invitational golf picks and predictions

Ludvig Aberg (+2000)

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook and BetMGM at time of publishing.

At bigger odds, this looks like a good chance for Ludvig Aberg to demonstrate his immense talent.

Aberg has needed time to gel with caddie Joe Skovron but it’s starting to click for the Swede, who was 9th at the Farmers, a runner-up at Pebble Beach and then 19th at the Genesis last time out. Unlike most weeks, Aberg has competitive experience in this tournament, finishing 24th as an amateur at the 2023 Arnold Palmer, and he’s since won on 2 tours and played a significant role as a member of a winning European Ryder Cup team. His long, straight driving is a huge asset at a course where 3 Europeans have won in the last 6 seasons, and he’s based in Florida so he’s suited to conditions in the Sunshine State.

Cameron Young (+2800)

Odds available at BetMGM at time of publishing.

Cameron Young continues to knock on the door, finishing 4th at the Cognizant after a Monday finish, and a competitive outing in Florida could benefit the New Yorker, who was 10th last year and 13th in 2022. Young has form figures of 3-70-8-16-4 this season and will surely get that elusive first PGA Tour win sooner rather than later,

Chris Kirk (+6000)

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook and BetMGM at time of publishing.

Florida specialist Chris Kirk closed with a 65 at PGA National last week and has Bay Hill results of 12-MC-13-15-8-5-39 from 2016 onwards. He won The Sentry at the start of this season and won’t fear anyone.

Harris English (+5500)

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.

This also appears to be a great chance for Harris English to win for the 5th time. The Georgia man, 9th at Bay Hill in 2020 and a runner-up last season, has produced some fine results this season, most notably last time out when finishing 7th at the Genesis.

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