Horse Racing picks for Churchill Downs race track on Thursday, November 16: New Beat can beat rivals

Jockey Javier Castellano rode Mage ahead of Jareth Loveberry aboard Two Phil's to win the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky. on May 6, 2023.
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Shane Ketteridge

Horse Racing

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US horse racing handicapper for Pickswise. Have handicapped horse racing in the UK for more than a decade, working as a tipster for the Racing Post, but have specialized in American racing for years. For Shane Ketteridge media enquiries, please email

There is plenty of great horse racing across America on Thursday, including at Churchill Downs race track. We have been in fine form with our picks for a long time now and we are up +140.15 units with our race selections to our recommended stakes dating back to August 5, 2021. Let’s keep it rolling!

Here are our best bets for today’s action at Churchill Downs race track.

3:31 pm ET Churchill Downs (Race 6) – Vicki Rose 7/2 (2-star play)

Race 6 at Churchill Downs is a 6-furlong Maiden Special Weight and I like the chances of the filly drawn in stall 1, Vicki Rose.

Her workouts in recent weeks have been eye-catching and If she can run to the form of her rallying 2nd over 5 furlongs in her debut at this track last season then she will have a great chance of breaking her maiden.

4:01 pm ET Churchill Downs (Race 7) – New Beat 6/1 (1-star play)

The Brendan Walsh-trained Poblano is to be feared in this $127,000 allowance race but there is surely more to come from New Beat, who is a raw filly with improvement in her.

She was an easy 3-length winner of her maiden over this trip at Fair Grounds at the start of the season and I expect her to get better with every race, so she is one to keep a close eye on.

4:33 pm ET Churchill Downs (Race 8) – Granato 8/1 (1-star play)

D. Whitworth Beckman’s Granato is unbeaten with 2 wins from 2 starts and she can have a big say in this extended 5-furlong allowance optional claiming race.

Declan Cannon’s mount showed tremendous speed in both of those victories at Horseshoe Indianapolis and she could be anything, so it would not be a surprise should she go well in an open-looking event.

5:05 pm ET Churchill Downs (Race 9) – Sweet Mimi 3/1 (2-star play)

A field of 2-year-old maiden fillies is set to go to post for the finale at Churchill Downs and this can go to the Brad Cox-trained Sweet Mimi, who looks set to win at the fourth time of asking.

This daughter of Good Magic is improving with each run and will be very tough to beat if coming on from her most recent run behind Take Charge Babe in this same grade and track in September.


Churchill Downs Late Pick 4

Race 6: 2, 3, 9
Race 7: 5, 11
Race 8: 4, 8
Race 9: 2, 5, 8

Stake: $0.50
Total stake: $18

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