Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans predictions, odds, spreads & betting lines: Titans can sweep rivals

Derrick Henry of the Tennessee Titans

The Tennessee Titans are set to face the Indianapolis Colts for the second time this month on Sunday and Mike Vrabel’s team are capable of completing a swift regular-season sweep. The crucial AFC South game is set for a 1.00pm ET start on CBS after the Titans won the first game between the teams 24-17 in Indianapolis in Week 4.  The Titans are top of the division with their 3-2 record but the Colts are not far behind at 3-2-1 and would love to be able to split the head-to-head tiebreaker with a home win.

The Titans are favorites this time having been road underdogs in the first game, and our NFL expert has picks, predictions and best bets for the Colts vs Titans game, so let’s break down the big game.

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NFL Week 7 Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans prediction

The Colts have not been the team that many people expected them to be so far this season, but back-to-back wins have improved their record to 3-2-1 and moved them within touching distance of the division lead. The Colts opened with a lackluster performance in a tie with the Texans and lost to the Jaguars, but found a way to beat the Chiefs in their third game. Their home loss to the Titans followed that success, but they have got back on track with wins over the Jaguars and Broncos.

The Titans are also on an upward swing. They lost their first 2 games, to the Giants in a dramatic finish, and a 41-7 beatdown by the Bills, but have got to the top of the division with wins over the Raiders, Colts and Commanders. This is a crucial game in both teams’ seasons, and the stakes will be high on Sunday afternoon.

Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans spread, odds & betting lines

Point spread: Colts +2.5; Titans -2.5
Total points over/under: 41.5-42 points
Money line odds: Colts +125; Titans -135

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Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans expert picks

Colts vs Titans against the spread pick: Titans -2.5 (-110) over Colts

These AFC South rivals met just 3 weeks ago, when Tennessee won 24-17 and covered a 4-point spread as a road underdog. That gave the Titans, not just their fourth-straight win over Indianapolis, but also the fourth-straight time they had covered the spread — 3 times as a road dog and once as a home favorite. Outside of that, the history between these teams doesn’t reveal much of a trend, unless you want to buy into the narrative that the Titans are 1-3 ATS at home in their last 4 against the Colts, but how much relevance do games from 2019 have with the way these teams match up today? The key to this matchup is the Colts defense versus Derrick Henry. The Titans are coming off a bye, so they are well-rested. In their first meeting this year, Henry rushed for 114 yards and a touchdown, giving him his 5th 100-yard effort over their last 6 meetings. The Colts had some defensive injuries up the middle, but before you diminish Henry’s efforts, understand the Titans offensive line has also been down some key personnel they lost in the offseason. Still, Henry has managed to average 82 rushing yards and 1 touchdown per game this season.

On the offensive side, the Colts need to try to carry last week’s momentum into this game. The Titans’ pass defense is weak, allowing 287.6 passing yards per game with 12 passing touchdowns, so Matt Ryan should be able to throw on them. It would be even better if Jonathan Taylor returns from injury, as it forces Tennessee to play the run and leave their corners in a less favorable position. But will it be enough? Tennessee is all about time of possession and ball control, something they can continue to focus on this game.

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Colts vs Titans over/under total pick: Under 42 (-107)

When these teams met last, the over/under was 43, the lowest it had been since 2019 and just the second time the under hit in their last 6 meetings. Considering each team’s biggest asset is their lead running back, the low total is understandable as they jockey for position and look to control the line of scrimmage. The game plan doesn’t change for Tennessee, but with Jonathan Taylor still nursing an ankle injury and the rest of the Colts backfield remaining banged-up, the Colts may opt to take it to the air a little more often and build on Matt Ryan’s 389-yard, 3-touchdown performance from last week.

While an attempt at exposing the Titans’ weak pass coverage may suit the Colts on paper, they know their passing game is rendered ineffective if they can’t run the ball at all. Taylor put in limited practices late last week and should be able to go this weekend, however, just how effective he will be against a defense that allows the 5th-fewest rushing yards per game is yet to be seen. Expect these teams to focus on the Taylor versus Derrick Henry battle and keep the clock moving throughout. Hard-nosed, smashmouth football should keep the first-half score down enough to limit concern over second-half passing and scoring possibilities.

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Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans expert predictions

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