Ricky Dimon
Show Bio
The Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs should end with absolute bang, as this weekend’s finale pits familiar foes against each other in the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills. Buffalo has home-field advantage this time around, having previously suffered several heartbreaking postseason defeats in Kansas City over the past few years. Will te Bills finally be able to turn the tide?
Here is my Same Game Parlay for the festivities, which kick off at 6:30 pm ET on CBS. Also be sure to check out our full Bills vs Chiefs predictions.
Bills -5.5 alternate spread (+142)
Josh Allen to score a touchdown (-115)
Rashee Rice to record 100+ receiving yards (+235)
Parlay odds: +1024
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen scoring a touchdown would obviously work well with a Bills win. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with backing Kansas City wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown to rack up plenty of yards. But even if he does, there is no reason why the home team can’t take care of business. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
Bills -5.5 alternate spread (+142)
Can the Bills get the playoff monkey – at least the one against the Chiefs – off their back? Buffalo has suffered some well-documented setbacks against Kansas City at the end of recent seasons, but those games were played at Arrowhead Stadium. There are reasons to think that things will be different this time around. First, of course, the Bills have home-field advantage. But that may be nothing more than an unnecessary bonus. They actually won at Arrowhead earlier this season – via a 20-17 decision on December 10. Buffalo is simply the better team regardless of location, and that has especially been the case down the stretch. Head coach Sean McDermott’s squad has won 6 straight games after starting the 2023 campaign with a modest 6-6 record. This hot streak includes a victory at Miami to steal the AFC East title from the Dolphins. It is true that K.C. is a formidable opponent, but these aren’t the same Chiefs that won multiple Super Bowls. Patrick Mahomes doesn’t have as much help as he used to. I think the Bills should be able to win by at least a touchdown.
Josh Allen to score a touchdown (-115)
Allen should be priced more into minus money to score a touchdown, so you don’t want to pass up the value on this play. The former Wyoming standout has scored a whopping 15 rushing TDs in the regular season. Unsurprisingly, he also found the endzone with his feet during last weekend’s Wild Card win over the Steelers. When these 2 teams went head-to-head a couple of months ago, Allen unsurprisingly delivered 1 score on the ground. All signs point to him carrying at least 1 more in by himself.
Rashee Rice to record 100+ receiving yards (+235)
Rice has been on an absolute roll of late. The rookie out of SMU wrapped up the regular season with 127 yards against Cincinnati and last week against Miami he went for 130 yards and 1 touchdown while catching 8 of 12 targets – despite the dreadful conditions in Kansas City. Rice has been targeted at least 9 times in 6 of the last 7 contests and has made at least 4 catches in 4 of the last 7. He hasn’t caught fewer than 5 balls in 7 straight. Travis Kelce seems to be slowing down just a bit, but opposing defenses still have to pay him lots of attention. That opens things for his pass-catching teammates, and Rice is the one who is taking advantage. Buffalo allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends in the regular season, which is all the more reason to think that Kelce will be held in check will the receivers do some damage. Kadarius Toney is out, giving Rice even more of a workload. I think he could really go crazy on Sunday.
