Mark Lammey
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Don’t look now, but the Phillies are just 2 games away from winning the World Series. It would be the biggest upset in quite some time and it would be a shock to the baseball world. The Astros came into this World Series on a 7-0 postseason run and had dominated much of the regular season. Philly stole Game 1 in Houston and now convincingly took Game 3 at home last night. Houston hasn’t been on the back foot much at all this year, so let’s see if they can answer the bell in Philly.
Astros -1.5 (+164)
Kyle Tucker 2+ total bases (+120)
Parlay odds: +364
Let’s take a closer look at each leg of our same game parlay.
Be sure to check out our full Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies Game 4 predictions
Houston Astros -1.5 over Philadelphia Phillies (+164)
After a competitive Game 1, each team has now taken turns with convincing wins. We’ve said it before and it still remains true. One of the most difficult things to do as a sports bettor is not to base decisions solely on what you just saw. That’s what helped us cash our Game 2 SGP after the Astros blew their Game 1 lead, and hopefully what will help us cash today’s SGP. Speaking of those first 2 games, let’s not forget that it was Houston that jumped out to 5-0 leads, the first of which came against tonight’s Phillies starter Aaron Nola.
Philly fans were excited that rain delay would help their rotation, including Nola and Zack Wheeler, have enough rest, but the Astros smashed both of them early and often. There’s no denying that ace Justin Verlander let them down, but he won’t be on the mound tonight. Instead, it will be Cristian Javier. He was in shutdown mode the last time he was on the mound, which was Game 3 of the ALCS. Not only did he lead the Astros to a 5-0 win over the New York Yankees in that game, but it means he enters this game with 11 days of rest. He wasn’t on the mound when Houston faced Philly in the regular season, but unfamiliarity with a pitcher should favor Javier tonight.
Kyle Tucker 2+ total bases (+120)
Yes, we’re taking a similar approach that we’ve taken for Games 2 and 3, but that’s not out of lack of creativity or effort. Not only has it helped us cash an SGP in this World Series already, but it also fits in the mold. Firstly, the run line has been covered in each of the last 2 games and the Astros have gotten out to 2 separate 5-0 leads. Similarly, they’ve had key hitters take the reins and step up to lead the team to those fast starts. That was the case in Game 1 with Kyle Tucker.
If not for the rare blown lead, Tucker would have easily been the hero of that opening matchup. That was a start by Nola, who Tucker will now get to face once again tonight. He got the scoring started by hitting a solo home run in the bottom of the 2nd inning, only to then hit a 3-run bomb in the very next frame. It’s safe to say he has Nola’s number.
It’s also not as if that was some fluke performance. Tucker may not have the name recognition of Jose Altuve or Yordan Alvarez, but he was among the league’s best hitters all season. His 260 total bases were the 14th-most in the AL this season. Given how hot he was against Nola in Game 1, Tucker should lead the way in getting this series to an even 2-2 heading into Game 5.
Be sure to check out our YRFI/NRFI best bet for Game 4 – we cashed last night’s play!
What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?
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