Mark Lammey
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After having Friday off, the Astros and Mariners get Game 3 going this afternoon. It’s been an exciting ALDS series already, with Houston taking Game 1 in walk-off fashion. They now have a 2-0 lead despite the Mariners having the lead in each of the first 2 games. They’ll be up in Seattle for Game 3 and it’s a much more evenly priced game. There’s plenty of recent history to draw from between these teams, so let’s break down the best plays for today. Along with this Same Game Parlay, be sure to check out our MLB analysis for all of the upcoming postseason games.
Under 7.5 total runs (-150)
Lance McCullers Jr. 5+ strikeouts (-180)
George Kirby 5+ strikeouts (+200)
Parlay odds: +500
Let’s take a closer look at each leg of our same game parlay.
Under 7.5 total runs (-150)
Not only have oddsmakers priced this game as if it should be a close one, we feel the same way. Therefore, we’re going to target the total instead. Although the series opener went over the total, that has not been the theme for the Astros this season. They proved that in Game 2 and that trend should continue. They’ve been the most dominant team in the AL this season by having an elite pitching staff, including the MLB’s best bullpen.
Now they’ll get to have an extra day of rest ahead of Game 3 and the Mariners should enjoy that as well. Seattle’s relief staff steadily improved throughout the year and even finished the regular season with the 6th-lowest ERA. The extra day of rest should also help both starters, which we’ll expand on throughout or SGP. Along with rested pitchers, this series transitioning to Seattle also benefits a low-scoring game. T-Mobile Park up in the Pacific Northwest ranks 27th for extra-base hits and next-to-last for overall runs. This game could be won by either team, but it should be taken in low-scoring fashion.
Be sure to check out our Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners predictions
Lance McCullers Jr. 5+ strikeouts (-180)
As aforementioned, we’re going to take a deeper dive into the starting pitching matchup on an individual basis. As a fan of total bases and hitting props overall, this is simply not the matchup for them. Houston got to this point without McCullers for most of the season, and he’s been strong since returning. The Astros have been very cautious not to overwork him and he’ll be coming into this matchup with 12 days of rest.
Due to his late start to the season, he hasn’t faced the Mariners at all this year. However, he has a career 10-3 record with a 2.80 ERA against them. They have some new pieces this season, but we can still trust McCullers and his strikeout prowess. He had strikeout totals of 7, 6, 11 and 8 in his 4 starts in September and has had similar outings against the Mariners. His most recent start against them at the tail end of last season saw him record 7 strikeouts and he’s had 6 or more in 6 of his last 7 meetings against Seattle. With so much rest and a pitcher-friendly ballpark, McCullers should mow down plenty of Mariners this afternoon.
George Kirby 5+ strikeouts (+200)
Despite McCullers success against the Mariners, part of the reason we aren’t using their money line in this SGP is due to the standout performances of Mariners rookie George Kirby. Along with the additions to the lineup, Seattle has added him to their rotation with great success. They even used Kirby as a closer to help clinch their series against the Blue Jays in the Wild Card round.
That’s also the only inning he’s pitched in 12 days. He’s a strikeout pitcher through and through, with several starts recording 9 of them. He didn’t have his best outing in his only start against the Astros this season, yet he still sent plenty of them to the dugout going down on strikes. Kirby struck out 7 Houston batters in just 4.0 innings in that outing. He should be riding high on the confidence the Mariners have demonstrated with him and roll that over into a strong start on Saturday.
Also check out our YRFI/NRFI best bets for today!
What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?
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