Caleb Wilfinger
MLB
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With plenty of MLB games taking place each day, one of the quickest bets you can make is if a run will be scored in the first inning. There is value to be had and this market has become very popular over time. If you don’t like sweating out your bets for 3 hours, this one will only take about 15 minutes. We’re on 34-14 run with our YRFI/NRFI picks, so let’s keep the momentum going!
Before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our MLB picks on the side and total for every game today. There are 2 YRFI/NRFI bets I like on Friday, so let’s get right into it.
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Pittsburgh Pirates vs Seattle Mariners: NRFI (-135)
For our NRFI selection on Friday, I’ll be targeting this rock-solid pitching matchup in Seattle. Mitch Keller has been one of the biggest surprises in the National League for the Pirates, and his advanced metrics show that his ERA of 2.44 isn’t a fluke. He’ll be taking on a Mariners offense that doesn’t exactly pack a punch (24th in SLG, 25th in OPS), so I expect another strong outing from the Pittsburgh ace in this contest.
Keller will be opposed by George Kirby, who has been really strong this season, particularly at home. While I’m bullish on the Pirates getting to Kirby as the game goes along, I do think he’ll get off to a strong start in what has historically been a very pitcher-friendly park in Seattle.
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Washington Nationals vs Kansas City Royals: YRFI (-120)
Unlike the other matchup in this column, this game between the Nationals and Royals is one that shouldn’t feature strong starting pitching. Patrick Corbin hasn’t statistically been as poor as he was a season ago, but his numbers aren’t far behind. With an xERA of 6.09 and an xBA and xSLG in the bottom 5 percentile of all starting pitchers, Corbin isn’t missing many bats this season and I don’t expect that to change on Friday.
He’ll be opposed by Jordan Lyles, who has statistically been one of the worst pitchers in baseball over the last 4 seasons. And while Lyles got off to a decent start this season, his ERA has ballooned up to 7.15 on the season after allowing at least 4 runs in 8 of his last 9 outings. Lyles has allowed a first-inning run in 5 of his last 6 starts and I expect that to continue.
Check out Friday’s MLB mega parlay
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