Caleb Wilfinger
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With plenty of MLB games taking place each day, one of the quickest bets you can make is if a run will be scored in the first inning. There is value to be had and this market has become very popular over time. If you don’t like sweating out your bets for 3 hours, this one will only take about 15 minutes. We’re on 35-17 run with our YRFI/NRFI picks, so let’s keep the momentum going!
Before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our MLB picks on the side and total for every game today. There are 2 YRFI/NRFI bets I like on Monday, so let’s get right into it.
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Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros: NRFI (-115)
For our first NRFI selection on Monday, I’ll be backing a scoreless opening frame between the Twins and Astros. Sonny Gray will take the mound for Minnesota and the veteran right-hander has been excellent this season, posting an ERA of 1.82 while allowing more than 2 runs in just 1 of his 10 starts. Gray is pitching like an ace and I expect that to continue in the early going against an Astros team that just completed a stress-free sweep against the A’s.
Houston is countering with J.P. France on the bump, a pitcher that Minnesota’s lineup has yet to face. Outside of an outing where he surrendered 6 ER against the Cubs, France has had a strong debut season, allowing just 2 runs over 17.1 IP in 3 of his 4 other starts. I’m looking for another solid effort from France at home.
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Texas Rangers vs Detroit Tigers: NRFI (-120)
Unlike the other game in this column, this one doesn’t have a high-profile starting pitching matchup on paper. Therefore, I think we’re getting a bit of value on the NRFI at this price. Matthew Boyd gets the ball for the Tigers and while his numbers aren’t all that impressive (5.74 ERA, 1.42 WHIP), his xERA of 4.24 and hard-hit rate in the 86th percentile show that there is room for positive regression. Even against a very good Texas lineup, I expect a solid start from Boyd at home.
On the other side, Nathan Eovaldi has not allowed a first-inning run in each of his last 5 starts and his advanced metrics line up well with his traditional stats (2.60 ERA, 0.97 WHIP). Don’t expect that to change against this poor Tigers lineup on Monday.
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