MLB picks Saturday 10/28: YRFI & NRFI best bets today: Merrill Kelly and Jordan Montgomery limit offenses

Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Merrill Kelly (29) pitches during the first inning against the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 6 of the NLCS at Citizens Bank Park on Oct. 23, 2023, in Philadelphia, PA. The Arizona Diamondbacks won Game 6 of the NLCS against the Philadelphia Phillies, 5-1.

If you aren’t interested in a bet that will take 9 innings, one of the shortest-lasting bets you can make in an MLB game is if a run will be scored in the first inning. All it takes is 6 outs to glory, and one swing of the bat can make or break your bet.

There is also a lot of value in these bets because the odds are usually very well-priced, and if you’re not a fan of sweating out your bets for 3 hours then this one will take only about 15 minutes to win or lose. Make sure you check out our Diamondbacks vs Rangers predictions for Game 2 of the World Series tonight too!

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Texas Rangers: NRFI (-111)

Available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.

Game 2 of the World Series will feature a pitching matchup between Merrill Kelly and Jordan Montgomery. And while we can discuss who has the advantage from the first inning until the last, the latter doesn’t matter for this wager. The question is simple — will Kelly or Montgomery allow a run in the first inning? And my answer is also simple – no. Kelly has been a phenomenal sidekick to Zac Gallen all season, and he’s been even better than Gallen in the postseason. Kelly owns a 2.65 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 4 postseason starts, and he’s allowed just a .153 batting average while striking out 28% of the hitters. In the first inning, Kelly has allowed a run just once in his 4 postseason starts. But going even further back, he’s allowed a first-inning run in just 2 of his last 9 outings. His ability to get a lot of ground-ball outs will be the key to his success against an elite Texas top of the order.

Jordan Montgomery has arguably been the best pitcher in the postseason. The lefty owns a 3-0 record, 2.16 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 5 postseason appearances. During those outings, he’s thrown 2 scoreless starts and 1 scoreless relief outing. His sinker and changeup combination have resulted in a lot of weak contact, and fortunately for him, he faces a Snakes offense that prefers right-handers to lefties. In the regular season, the Diamondbacks lineup ranked 20th in batting average, 18th in on-base percentage, 27th in slugging percentage, 24th in OPS and 23rd in wRC+ against left-handed pitching. With a lefty pitcher on the mound and the nerves of a World Series game, I’m expecting both offenses to start slowly on Saturday night.

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