MLB picks Thursday 9/28: YRFI & NRFI best bets today - Our expert is on a 34-18 run!

Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Logan Gilbert (36) walks off the field at the end of the fifth inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at T-Mobile Park.
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Caleb Wilfinger


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Deputy Editor for Pickswise with years of experience handicapping and giving out winning picks. Lover of all US sports and Southampton FC. For Caleb Wilfinger media enquiries, please email

With plenty of MLB games taking place each day, one of the quickest bets you can make is if a run will be scored in the first inning. There is value to be had and this market has become very popular over time. If you don’t like sweating out your bets for 3 hours, this one will take only about 15 minutes. I’m on a 34-18 run with my YRFI/NRFI plays, so let’s keep this momentum going! But before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our MLB picks for each of today’s matchups.

Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners: NRFI (-120)

For my first pick on Thursday’s card, I’ll be targeting the NRFI in this matchup between the Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners. This is an absolutely massive tilt in the AL West, with the Rangers looking to fend of Seattle and the Houston Astros for the AL West crown, while the Mariners are just hoping to get into the playoffs as an AL Wild Card team. Only a few games separate these teams, which makes Wednesday’s matchup so critical, especially since Seattle has to compete with an Astros team that will be facing the Diamondbacks out west. Fortunately for the Mariners, they’ll have Logan Gilbert on the mound, who has been solid all season long and just allowed 2 runs over 5.2 innings pitched against the Rangers in his last start. He should get off to a hot start once again here.

On the other side, the Rangers will have Jordan Montgomery toeing the rubber, who is having a career resurgence on this Texas pitching staff heading into October. Having just tossed 7 shutout innings against this Mariners lineup, we can expect another solid effort from Montgomery on Thursday, at least in the opening frame. Look for a quick first inning in what I’m expecting to be a great game from start to finish.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers: NRFI (-104)

The NL Central has been the Brewers’ division to lose for a while, and Milwaukee finally locked up the division recently and now is just waiting on their opponent in the opening round of the MLB playoffs next week. Corbin Burnes will make his final start before the postseason and I’d expect a rock-solid outing from one of the best pitchers in the National League, as he holds a 3.46 ERA with strong advanced metrics across the board. I don’t see the Brewers ace struggling with a listless Cardinals offense at the moment. While Dakota Hudson hasn’t always been great this season, he should get a reprieve against a Brewers lineup that could be resting a few key players given that this is a day game following a night game on Wednesday. Let’s go with the NRFI in Milwaukee.

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