I am pleased with the MLB season as whole so far, as we have numerous storylines to follow and countless teams within range of contention. There seems to be a buzz around more ballparks this season than in years past, and as a fan, it has truly been enjoyable to watch. Looking into Friday’s slate of games, there are 3 bets that stand out to me. Let’s dive in and discuss, while you can also check out our MLB predictions for tips and analysis on EVERY game this season.
MLB Best Bet: Texas Rangers ML over Los Angeles Angels (-164)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -175.
Grayson Rodriguez made his MLB return in a tough matchup against the Los Angeles Dodgers last week. I picked on him by betting Dodgers team total over 4.5 in that game, and Los Angeles came through with a 10-1 win. Of those 10 runs scored, 7 came against Rodriguez — as he lasted just 3.2 innings. Grayson allowed 7 hits, but the biggest concern for me was his shaky command, issuing 4 free passes. I am going to continue to pick on him until he finds his groove and returns to form. Friday, he takes on the Texas Rangers in a game where Texas holds a clear starting pitching advantage.
Jacob deGrom is set to start for Texas, marking his 10th start of the season for the Rangers. Through his first 9 starts, the right-hander has posted a 3.02 ERA across 50.2 innings of work. DeGrom has had 2 shaky outings against the Yankees and Astros this month, but his other start resulted in 7 scoreless frames against the Cubs. This Angels lineup is easily the weakest of that bunch, entering Friday with the 3rd-lowest wOBA against right-handed pitching. They also sport the highest strikeout rate against righties. I believe deGrom is well equipped to shred this Anaheim lineup on Friday.
Texas has been solid offensively, ranking 11th in wOBA with a 104 wRC+ against righties entering this series. While not the deepest lineup in the sport, I am a fan of this Rangers team and find them undervalued on Friday with their ace on the mound.
MLB Best Bet: Chicago White Sox ML over San Francisco Giants (-108)
Odds available at FanDuel sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -120 odds.
San Francisco benefits from playing this series at home, but they are not a team I am looking to back in their current form. The Giants sit at 20-30 entering this series following a sweep at the hands of the Diamondbacks. Meanwhile, Chicago enters this series a game over .500 and just 3.5 games behind the Guardians for 1st place in the AL Central. White Sox fans are ecstatic for this early season success, and with outstanding youthful performers, there is hope for long-term success with this roster.
Davis Martin has been outstanding for the Chicago White Sox starting rotation in 2026. Across his first 56 innings of work, the right-hander has posted a measly 1.61 ERA with a 0.98 WHIP. Both of those marks rank within the top 10 among qualified arms this season, as he has served as the ace of this staff with consistent outings and reliable performances every 5th day. His 3.66 xERA suggests eventual regression but is still a relatively strong mark. Martin’s 2.39 FIP is a very strong mark. Now, he benefits from a massive park shift in his favor, making Friday’s start in the pitcher-friendly Oracle Park. He also should benefit from a matchup against a Giants offense ranking 29th in wOBA against right-handed pitching.
Trevor McDonald is the scheduled starter for the Giants on Friday. McDonald has pitched well for San Francisco, tossing 19 innings with a 2.37 ERA through his first 3 starts of the season. Furthermore, he has 17 strikeouts recorded to only 3 walks issued in that timeframe. I don’t expect a poor outing from the Giant’s right-hander, but he is tasked with facing the tougher lineup in this game considering Chicago enters Friday sitting exactly league average in both wOBA and wRC+ against right-handed pitching. They have power sources capable of taking advantage of McDonald’s 8th-percentile hard-hit rate. With the current form of Davis Martin, I am more than willing to side with the White Sox at current pricing.
MLB Best Bet: Davis Martin (CWS) over 4.5 strikeouts recorded (-132)
Odds available at Caesars sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -180 odds.
Let’s stick with Martin for our 3rd and final play on Friday. Martin has showcased elite command of the zone, ranking 95th percentile with his 4.7% walk rate. He is also earning more strikeouts this season with his 27.4% K-rate — good for 83rd percentile. Not to mention, Martin has been able to draw opponents out of the zone with his 88th percentile chase rate, while he finishes them off with a 62nd-percentile whiff rate.
My favorite thing about Martin is his pitch mix and ability to throw any of those pitches in any situation. He utilizes each of his 6 offerings at least 11.7% of the time with no single pitch earning more than 26.1% usage. That is remarkable versatility, and it is his way of keeping opponents off balance. The slider and 4-seamer have been his 2 main put-away pitches, earning 18 Ks on both of those pitches so far. His slider is registering a 52.9% whiff rate, and his 4-seamer plays off that pitch very well.
The Giants offense stinks against right-handed pitching, as mentioned above, and their 21% strikeout rate against righties is slightly below league average. Martin is expected to work 6 or more innings tonight considering his outs-recorded prop is 17.5 and juiced to the over. Furthermore, oddsmakers expect him to have a great outing given his earned-runs prop at 2.5 is juiced heavily to the under. Both of those looks make sense to me, but the best value is on the over on his strikeouts prop at the -132 price point. Martin has recorded 7 or more strikeouts in 5 straight starts, so a ladder could be in play as well.
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