MLB picks Wednesday 4/5: YRFI & NRFI best bets today: Expect fireworks at Fenway

Caleb Wilfinger

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Deputy Editor for Pickswise with years of experience handicapping and giving out winning picks. Lover of all US sports and Southampton FC. For Caleb Wilfinger media enquiries, please email contact@pickswise.com.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Boston Red Sox: YRFI (-110)

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.

If you’ve watched a game involving the Red Sox over the first 5 days of the season, you’ve probably noticed that Boston has serious issues with its pitching staff. Boston has allowed a whopping 30 runs through 4 games, as the Red Sox haven’t been able to locate a consistent arm in the starting rotation or the bullpen to this point. Corey Kluber started off the season on a sour note, surrendering 5 runs and walking 4 batters before being yanked from the game in the 4th inning on Opening Day. I don’t expect him to fare much better against the likes of O’Neill Cruz, Bryan Reynolds and a confident Pirates lineup in a hitters’ park.

Even if the Pirates are unable to score, we still have a good shot to cash this ticket with the hosts. Boston has certainly had its issues with pitching so far this season, but the Red Sox are producing at the plate. Between Rafael Devers, Alex Verdugo, Adam Duvall and rookie Masataka Yoshida, Boston is scoring in bunches over its first 4 games in 2023. That trend should continue in this one, as they’ll face off against Mitch Keller. Keller struggled against the Reds on Opening Day and has consistently been near the bottom of baseball in exit velocity, hard hit rate and wOBA over the last few seasons. Look for this potent Boston offense to pounce and scratch across a run in the early going.

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Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Yankees: NRFI (-130)

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.

In what should be the premier pitching matchup of the day, the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Yankees will continue their series in the Bronx with a pair of aces on the mound. Gerrit Cole is fresh off a terrific start on Opening Day, which should give the veteran right-hander plenty of confidence against a struggling Phillies lineup. Philadelphia’s top-of-the-order doesn’t have much experience or success off Cole, including Trea Turner and Alec Bohm. And while Nick Castellanos is 7-of-16 lifetime in this matchup, Cole likely won’t have to face the right fielder until the 2nd inning if he sets down the side in order. I’ll bank on another strong start from the best pitcher in New York.

On the other side, the Phillies will counter with Aaron Nola. While he struggled mightily against the Rangers in his first start of the season, Nola is still as reliable as they come in baseball these days. The Phillies ace was in the top 10% of all qualified starters in xERA, xWOBA and hard hit rate a season ago. Additionally, Nola was in the top 1% of the league in walk percentage, which is key against a Yankees lineup that you don’t want to give any free bases. The top of the order for New York does have a solid history against Nola, but much of that was in a small sample size and can’t be completely trusted. This is still one of the game’s best pitchers and he should start fast on Wednesday.

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