MLB Sunday YRFI/NRFI best bets 7/31: Max Fried starts strong

Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Max Fried (54) delivers during the first inning of a baseball game against the Cincinnati Reds, Friday, July 1, 2022, at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati.
Photo of Caleb Wilfinger

Caleb Wilfinger

MLB · 1 week ago

Show Bio

Deputy Editor for Pickswise. Lover of all US sports and Southampton FC.

Here at Pickswise, we are on a 29-13 run in our last 42 NRFI/YRFI best bets. With more than a dozen MLB games taking place each day, one of the quickest bets you can make is if a run will be scored in the first inning. There is value to be had and this market has become very popular over time. If you don’t like sweating out your bets for 3 hours, this one will only take about 15 minutes.

Before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our free picks on the side and total for every MLB game.

There are 2 NRFI/YRFI bets I like on Sunday, so let’s get right into it.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Atlanta Braves: NRFI (-105)

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. 

Sunday’s matchup between the Diamondbacks and Braves should be predicated on solid starting pitching. The Braves got off to a quick start in the series opener, but don’t expect the same result in this one. Arizona is sending Merrill Kelly to the hill, who has been surprisingly effective early on. Kelly’s xERA is hovering around his 3.04 ERA, and he’s good at limiting hard contact. Furthermore, his xWOBA and xSLG is in the top 25% of all qualified starters. Even against a hot Braves offense, Kelly should have early success.

The Diamondbacks’ offense has a major challenge on their hands with Max Fried. The Braves ace continues to be one of best in baseball, and his raw and advanced metrics back it up. Posting a 2.73 ERA with just a 4% walk rate for the season, the lefty is more than capable of setting down a middling Diamondbacks lineup. Fried has not surrendered a first-inning run in his last 10 outings. He’s consistently dominated the opposition early on, and I don’t expect that to change against a mediocre offense.

New York Mets vs Miami Marlins: NRFI (-140)

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. 

Much like the previous contest, this NL East matchup should feature strong pitching from both teams. While this game doesn’t feature either team’s best pitcher, both are still solid. For the Mets, Taijuan Walker has been excellent in 2022, especially early on. While he allowed a run in the first inning of his last outing, Walker has typically made strong starts. In fact, the right-hander hasn’t surrendered a run in 12 of his 16 starts this season. The Miami Marlins offense is nothing to write home about, and they found out this week that they are likely going to be without Jazz Chisholm for the rest of the season. Chisholm has been Miami’s best hitter, and his absence has certainly been felt. It’ll be tough for the Marlins to get anything going early on.

On the other side, Pablo Lopez is a popular trade deadline candidate, and for good reason. The righty opened the season on an absolute tear, and has since rebounded nicely after an up-and-down June. Holding an ERA of 3.03 on the season, Lopez has been consistent all year, including holding the opposition scoreless in 4 of his last 5 outings. Look for another strong start from Lopez en route to a scoreless inning.

Be sure to check out our full game preview for New York Mets vs Miami Marlins

Pickswise is the home of free MLB picks and predictions. Make sure to also check out our MLB parlays and MLB prop bets tabs for more expert picks.

Virginia Bonuses

See All
PointsBet

$500

Get 5x $100 Risk-Free Bets!

Sign up for a new PointsBet account

Make a bet of up to $100 and receive a refund if you lose

Get this offer once a day for the first 5 days you sign up

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

BetMGM

$200

Get $200 in Free Bets & a PICKSWISE HAT!

Sign up for a new account with BetMGM, and make a deposit of $10+.

Place a $10 moneyline wager on any team

Win $200 in free bets and a FREE Pickswise hat

21+ and new players only. Full terms available at BetMGM Sportsbook.

FanDuel Sportsbook

$250

Bet One, Get One: FanDuel will match your first bet placed up to $250 in free bets

Sign up for a new account with FanDuel Sportsbook

Deposit at least $10 into your account

FanDuel will match your first bet up to $250 in Free Bets!

Must be 21+ in CO. First deposit of at least $10 required. Bonus issued as non-withdrawable free bets that expire 14 days after receipt. See full terms at fanduel.com/sportsbook.

DraftKings

$100

Bet $5+ on MLB and get $100 in Free Bets Instantly!

Sign up for a new account with DraftKings Sportsbook and make your first deposit

Bet $5+ on any MLB team to win their next game

Win $100 no matter what!

Offer valid for new players only. Must be 21 years or older to play. Reward paid in site credit. Full terms available at DraftKings Sportsbook.

PointsBet

$2,000

Get $2,000 in Risk-Free Bets!

Register for a new PointsBet account & deposit

Receive a free bet refund up to $500 if your first fixed odds bet loses

& a free bet refund up to $1,500 if your first two PointsBetting Wager loses

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

Caesars Sportsbook

$1,500

Get up to $1,500 Risk-Free First Bet!

Sign up for a new Caesars Sportsbook account

Make your first deposit of $50+

If your first bet is not a winner, get it all back as a free bet (up to $1,100) if you lose!

21+. Terms and conditions apply.

Monkey Knife Fight

$100

Claim Instant Deposit Match up to $100 + Free $5 game

Register for a Monkey Knife Fight account & deposit using promo code PICKSWISE100

Monkey Knife Fight will match your first deposit up to $100

Deposit $100 and you'll get $100 bonus + a free $5 game

18+. Terms and conditions apply. You must live in one of the states where real money DFS is legal.

BetRivers

$250

Get a $250 Deposit Bonus!

Sign up for a new BetRivers account using promo code PICKSWISE

Make a deposit & get it doubled up to $250 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $100

Must be 21+. Play in IA Only. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-BETS OFF

Unibet

$500

Get a $500 Risk-Free Bet!

Register for a new Unibet account & make a deposit

Place your first bet up to $500 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $500

New players only. Terms & conditions apply. 21+. VA only.

BetMGM

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet!

Register for a new BetMGM & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

FanDuel Sportsbook

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet!

Register for a new FanDuel Sportsbook account & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

DraftKings

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Deposit Bonus!

Register for a new DraftKings Sportsbook account & deposit

DraftKings will match 20% of your deposit up to $1,000 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $500

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

Monkey Knife Fight

$100

Claim 100% Instant Deposit Match up to $100!

Register for a Monkey Knife Fight account & deposit using promo code PICKSWISE100

Monkey Knife Fight will match your first deposit up to $100

Deposit $100 and you'll get $100 bonus + a free $5 game

18+. Terms and conditions apply. You must live in one of the states where real money DFS is legal.

Yahoo DFS

$25

Get $25 in Site Credit With Yahoo DFS When You Deposit $5!

Register for a new account with Yahoo DFS and deposit $5+

Enter a $5 DFS contest

Upon entry, you will receive a bonus $25 in credit into your account!

21+ and new players only. Full terms available from Yahoo DFS.

TVG

$200

Get Your First Single-Horse Win Wager Back Up to $200 if you don't win

Register for a new TVG account and make a deposit

Place your first single horse win-type bet up to $200

If your horse doesn't win you'll get a refund up to $300

21+. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly.

TwinSpires

$200

Get a $200 Sign-Up Bonus with Twinspires Racebook!

Open your TwinSpires.com account using offer code BET200

$200 bonus cash will be credited in increments of $100 for every $400 wagered

To earn the full $200 bonus players must wager $800 within 30 days

21+. Terms and conditions apply.