Mark Lammey
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The Yankees are in need of a win in a bad way. That would have been strange to say just a couple of weeks ago, but they have been in the midst of a terrible slump. However, they do still have a 10-game lead in the AL East and can use this series to start up a new winning streak. While the Rays remain significantly behind in the division, they are still in a solid position for a wild-card spot. The season series between these teams is still 7-4 in favor of the Yankees. With so much familiarity between these teams, we have plenty of results to help target the best ways to make this game profitable.
Along with this same game parlay, be sure to check out our thoughts on the side and total for all of today’s games.
Yankees ML (-165)
Under 9.5 total runs (-245)
Over 0.5 1st inning runs (+110)
Parlay odds: +425
Let’s take a closer look at each leg of our same game parlay.
New York Yankees ML (-165) over Tampa Bay Rays
The Yankees won’t have ace Gerrit Cole for tonight’s game, but they should still have the advantage on the mound. Outside of their own ace, Shane McClanahan, the Rays starting rotation hasn’t been very steady. They used more of a platoon of pitchers to open last night’s game, which included multiple lefties. They will be going with another lefty for this game in Jeffrey Springs. Just as a reliever opened up last night’s series opener, Springs too was once in the bullpen. He hasn’t faced the Yankees since the end of May, but that was a shutout loss.
While New York hasn’t been great recently, its ability to hit lefties certainly hasn’t diminished. The Bronx Bombers have the 2nd- highest OPS against such pitching, ahead of the likes of the Braves and Dodgers. That’s exactly what Yankees starter Nestor Cortes wants to hear. He makes this a battle of lefties on the mound, and has helped the team beat the Rays twice already this season. The first of those wins was actually the day prior to Springs’ loss, which saw a final of 7-2. While the Yankees have crushed lefties this season, the Rays are nearing the bottom 10 in that category. New York will also have the league’s 2nd-best bullpen coming in behind Cortes, helping it bounce back with a win tonight.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for the Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees
Under 9.5 total runs (-245)
That 2nd-ranked bullpen should both help Cortes and the Yankees get the win, as well as keep this game low-scoring. The Rays’ bullpen is no slouch, either; they are close behind with the 8th-best. Such great pitching staffs have made this season series perfect for unders. Every meeting between these teams this season has finished with 9 or fewer runs. That’s an 11-game sample size, meaning these are not just outliers. Even before the bullpens get involved, these starters should do their part.
Each of Springs’ last 4 starts have finished with 8 or fewer runs. Similarly, Cortes has had 3 of his last 4 starts see just 7 or fewer runs. The only game that just barely went over this total was a 10-run affair in which the Yankees exploited a terrible Royals pitching staff. Neither Springs nor Cortes have allowed more than 3 runs in any of their last 5 starts. The only pushback would be the Yankees ability to hit lefties. However, they have not been as consistent recently — such as in last night’s shutout. Still, they can certainly rack up a few early runs off of Springs without this game getting to double-digits.
Don’t miss our MLB mega parlay for tonight’s action (+898 odds!)
Over 0.5 1st inning runs (+110)
It may seem like we’re threading the needle with this last leg. However, a run or even 2 in the 1st inning does not put this game over the total. On the other hand, it does help boost our odds with such a particular situation needing to play out. While it is specific, it’s warranted. The Rays and Yankees have scored a run in the 1st inning while staying under our alternate total in 3 of their 5 meetings coming into this series. It’s a unique situation, but breaking it down makes sense.
The Yankees have been the 2nd-highest scoring team in the 1st inning at home this season as they have AL MVP favorite Aaron Judge and his league-leading 46 home runs guaranteed to see the plate. Similarly, Anthony Rizzo bats right behind him and has the 7th-most homers in the league. There is even a solid chance that a run is already on the board before they take the batter’s box. Tampa Bay is the 6th-best lineup for early runs and is only increasing that rank with Brandon Lowe being healthy. Along with Randy Arozarena and his 9th-most doubles in the American League, both teams can get things started early while the bullpens take over late.
Also check out our YRFI/NRFI best bets for today!
What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?
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