Matt Selz
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Welcome to Atlanta, where the players play as the famous Jermaine Dupri lyrics go. Atlanta Motor Speedway is hosting the NASCAR Cup Series Quaker State 400 this Sunday and all of the fun and chaos that comes with it. The redone Atlanta track is now more known for races that more resemble Daytona and Talladega than its old slipping, sliding, tire-wear surface.
What does this mean for us bettors? We get value on the markets and the sportsbooks, which is always a good thing. We’ll go over what to expect in the race, which types of betting strategies we can employ, winner predictions and our favorite prop bets for the Quaker State 400 below.
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What To Expect From Atlanta Motor Speedway
While Atlanta Motor Speedway was configured to be a plate track type race starting in 2022, it hasn’t fully raced that way. Over the last few races the pole-sitter has won twice, which doesn’t happen at Daytona or Talladega. We’ve also seen chunks of this race take on an intermediate track type race with it being tough to pass for the lead. What does this mean for betting? Well, at least early on, it might be tough for drivers to move through the draft like we’re used to seeing. However, in the end, I still expect to see “the big one” that wrecks a lot of cars.
Betting Strategies To Use For Quaker State 400
It’s always a crapshoot at these types of tracks. That being said, if there is one strategy that tends to hold water, it’s that banking on 6-7 drivers starting outside the top-20 will likely finish inside the top 10. So far, at Atlanta, and other plate tracks, over the last few years the winners have started inside the top 10 most of the races and guys with very long odds don’t hit nearly as often as we’d think. So even in the chaos, we can find things that make sense and are actionable trends for betting.
Winner Predictions For NASCAR Quaker State 400
All odds shown are from DraftKings Sportsbook unless otherwise noted.
Chase Elliott +1000 (Caesars)
Chase Elliott is the only driver in the field with multiple wins in the last 9 plate races. That includes winning at his home track in Atlanta. He also needs a win to make the playoffs. It has been a disappointing season for him to this point but it can all be forgotten if he parks the #9 car in Victory Lane at his home track to right the ship.
Joey Logano +1200 (DraftKings)
Joey Logano dominated the Atlanta race earlier this year and should be in line to have another strong performance this weekend. He’s always a threat at plate tracks and now that he knows what the set-up and the feel he’s looking for is, watch out.
Brad Keselowski +1400 (Caesars)
There was a question when Brad Keselowski left Penske for RFK as to whether or not his plate-track success was due to him or the team. Well, he has answered that question now with back-to-back top-5 finishes including a P2 in Atlanta earlier in the year. Keselowski is always one of the guys to beat at this type of track and if he can make it through the big one he’s got a great shot at getting a win as a co-owner.
Austin Cindric +3000 (Caesars)
Austin Cindric has been lackluster, to say the least, since his win at the Daytona 500 last year in his Cup debut. However, we can’t argue with the consistency in these races though both for him and Team Penske as a whole. Cindric ranks 6th in the field in terms of average finish over the last 9 plate races. That has to count for something. In order to win here we need drivers who are consistently on the track at race’s end and that’s Cindric.
Justin Haley +5000 (Caesars)
Do the sportsbooks realize that Justin Haley has a long history of winning these races, including in the Cup series? I get that he has not been a factor recently but still this is a hard line to pass up for a guy with his ability at plate tracks. In the last 9 such races he has 3 top-12 finishes.
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Best Prop Bets For Atlanta
Erik Jones Top-10 Finish +175 (Caesars)
This is Erik Jones’ speciality of sorts and he’s won a couple of plate races in his time in the Cup series. We don’t need him to win, though if you want he’s going off at +3300. All we need him to do is do something he’s accomplished 55% of the time recently and finish in the top 10. Jones has been consistently faster following the Father’s Day break and couple that with his propensity for nailing a top 10 at this style of race and we’re good to go.
Brad Keselowski Top-10 Finish +105 (Caesars)
We’re still getting plus-money on a guy like Keselowski at a plate track? Really? He’s finished P2 and P5 in the last 2 plate races, including Atlanta earlier this year. He ran well there last year as well as plate races have always been a speciality of his and the Ford camp too. It’s hard to deny the speed the RFK drivers have had of late and that should power Keselowski to a top 10, and if you want to look at his teammate, Chris Buescher, who also has two top-5s in the last 3 races, he’s going off at +130 for a top-10 finish.
Daniel Suarez Top-10 Finish +180 (Caesars)
We’ve thought about Suarez as a road-course guy and only target him when he’s fast on intermediates. However, that’s selling him short. He has posted 5 top 10s in the last 9 races at Atlanta, Daytona and Talladega and yet we’re still getting a very nice return. The implied odds on this line is 35.7% while Suarez has pulled off this feat 55% of the time recently. There’s also the fact that Trackhouse Racing has been on a hot streak.
Aric Almirola Top-5 Finish +400 (Caesars)
Aric Almirola ranks 4th this year in terms of percentage of laps laps run inside the top 5 at drafting tracks (Atlanta, Daytona and Talladega) and the other 3 are no lower than +265 for a top-5 finish. So right away we’re getting value on the line. However, there is still risk, aside from the built-in risk from this type of race, as Almirola hasn’t turned those into even top-10 finishes this year. If he can finish the race, his Ford should give him a good shot at a top 5.
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