Nathan's Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds, Predictions & Best Bets (2026)

Happy Joey Chestnut Day to all who celebrate.  

Or, much less importantly, Happy 250th birthday to the United States of America. 

Yes, Chestnut will once again return to his stomping grounds of Coney Island, New York to commemorate the Fourth of July festivities with the Nathan’s Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest. Chestnut completely dominating the field is an annual tradition, although the American hero was forced into a 1-year hiatus from the competition in 2024 due to sponsorship issues. 

Chestnut returned with a vengeance on Independence Day in 2025, not only restoring glory to what is perhaps the greatest competition in the entire world of sports (yes, even greater than the upcoming World Cup final) but also restoring order to competitive eating as a whole. Chestnut once again cemented himself as the fastest – and simply the best – eater on Earth by blowing away the field with 70.5 hot dogs consumed, 24 more than runner-up Patrick Bertoletti. 

You can bet on pretty much anything these days, and the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest is no exception. Fortunately for American competitive eating fans, the legendary Mustard Yellow International Belt is all but guaranteed to stay home thanks to Chestnut. Unfortunately for bettors, there aren’t any real options on the outright market. To put it simply, Chestnut is going to win. There is little to no doubt about that. If he doesn’t, it would be the biggest upset in sports history – bigger than USA over Russia at the 1980 Winter Olympics, bigger than Buster Douglas over Mike Tyson and bigger than Hickory over South Bend Central in Hoosiers.  

Of course, there isn’t much value on the Kentucky native as an overwhelming -2500 favorite – nor is there any value on the rest of the field as huge underdogs. Aside from the aberration that was 2015 (when Matt Stonie shocked the universe by beating Chestnut 62 ‘dogs to 60), nobody has been able to challenge the best competitive eater on the planet since Japanese legend Takeru Kobayashi stopped competing in the contest in 2011.  

As such, we must look elsewhere for value bets. Let’s take a look.  

Joey Chestnut Under 70.5 hot dogs consumed (-140) 

It’s never fun to fade Chestnut, but he can obviously still win the competition even without consuming scarfing down than 70.5 hot dogs. In fact, he will win. The only questions are: by how much and after eating how many? 

In 2022 the listed total was 74.5. I hammered the under and it cashed comfortably, as Chestnut downed “only” 63 ‘dogs (partly due to a protestor running on stage in the middle of the competition, after which Chestnut put him in a chokehold). Three years ago the number was 72.5 and I was all over the under again. It cashed again, as Jaws finished with 62 – and that was despite no interruptions. I made it 3 in a row on Under cashes last summer, as Chestnut’s 70.5 effort failed to reach the 71.5 quota. 

We can still root for Chestnut while also predicting him to finish under the number. That’s exactly what I’m doing here. The 42-year-old exceeded this 70.5 mark in 2018, 2020 and 2021, but those are the only 3 times he has done it. That means Chestnut has surpassed 70.5 in just 1 trip to the hallowed grounds of Surf and Stillwell Avenues, where the festivities returned in 2022 following a 2-year departure. It was held indoors in 2020 because of the Covid-19 pandemic and in 2021 it took place amidst a limited capacity at Maimonides Park, a minor-league baseball stadium. Only in 2018, when he devoured 74 franks, has Chestnut exceeded 70.5 at the Coney Island venue.  

To be sure, Chestnut is a lock to win an 18th Mustard Yellow International Belt – cementing his status as not only a legendary athlete but also quite simply a legendary man.  

"When the barren hills and the cracked earth and the once-proud oceans drain to sand, there will still be a monument to our existence," contest host George Shea declared to the masses who attended the 2022 weigh-in. "This man represents all that is eternal in the human spirit."  

Truer words have never been spoken…but there is still too much value on the under.  

Winner without Joey Chestnut: Geoffrey Esper (+400) 

At long odds, Esper has good value to finish runner-up behind Chestnut. Esper is the #3 eater in the world right now, trailing Chestnut and Bertoletti (Bertoletti is -225 to be the winner without Chestnut). The 52-year-old got second place 3 times in a row prior to Chestnut’s absence in 2024. Esper failed to capitalize on the open door 2 summers ago, when he placed second behind Bertoletti. Still, there is no reason to get off the bandwagon. There is no reason why Esper can’t get back to finishing second.