Filip Tomic
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Christmas Day is traditionally one of the most special days during the NBA season and for the 16ht season in a row we have a five-game slate to entertain us. The festivities begin at Noon ET on ESPN with the Bucks taking on the Knicks at MSG for the 2nd time in two days.
Stephen Curry and his Warriors visit the defending champions Nuggets in the 2nd game of the day, followed by the LA Lakers taking on the Boston Celtics in what will be LeBron James’ 18th appearance on Christmas Day. For the 4th game of the night, we head to South Beach for an all-Eastern Conference clash between the Philadelphia 76ers and Miami Heat. The action concludes with the Dallas Mavericks and Phoenix Suns squaring off in a much-anticipated clash between Luka Doncic and Kevin Durant.
As always, be sure to visit our NBA Predictions page for picks on the side and total for each of the 5 games.
I’ve gone in-depth with each of these 5 games and here are my best bets for every single one of them.
Milwaukee Bucks vs New York Knicks best bet: Julius Randle Over 8.5 Rebounds (-138)
With Mitchell Robinson out of the frame, the Knicks have been giving up rebounds all over the place lately. That’s one of the main reasons why they lost to Milwaukee on Saturday, but this time it will be different. It’s time for Julius Randle to take a stance and play some defense against Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks.
He’s averaging 8.2 rebounds per game in the month of December, just 2 games ago he grabbed 14 of them vs the Lakers in a win. In the last 5 meetings he’s averaging 10 rebounds per game and has had at least 8 of them in 4 of those games. On Saturday he fell 1 rebound shy of this line, but I’m confident he will step up on Christmas day.
Check our Milwaukee Bucks vs New York Knicks Predictions
Denver Nuggets vs Golden State Warriors best bet: Stephen Curry Over 4.5 Threes (-110)
Believe it or not, Stephen Curry hasn’t had many memorable performances on this day. For his career he’s averaging just 15.3 points per game in 9 appearances. However, he did drop 33 points in his most recent Xmas game back in 2021 against the Suns. Considering how the Warriors season has gone so far, he has to show up here if his team is to stand a chance.
Curry has played well vs the Nuggets lately, averaging 28 points per game in the last 10 meetings. He’s shooting a solid 39.3% from downtown during that stretch, while making 4.2 threes per game. He has been able to clear this line in 4 of the last 5 meetings and with him shooting over 41% from deep in December, I think that’s enough to warrant us backing him here.
Boston Celtics vs LA Lakers best bet: LeBron James 2+ Made Threes (-170)
LeBron’s 40-point performance on Saturday vs the Thunder showed us that he is still capable of hurting teams in a variety of ways, but this season it feels like James has been settling a lot more for the three-ball instead of attacking the basket. He went 5-for-5 from three-point land in OKC, over his last 10 games he’s shooting the deep ball at 40% efficiency.
He’s also cleared this line 4 times in his last 5 outings and in 6 of 9 games played in December. In the last 10 games vs Boston he’s averaging 28.5 points and shooting 38.3% from three, clearing this line 8 times. Count on him to deliver vs the Celtics.
Read our +401 odds Boston Celtics vs LA Lakers Same Game Parlay
Philadelphia 76ers vs Miami Heat best bet: Tyrese Maxey to Score 30+ Pts (-140)
With Joel Embiid officially ruled out for Monday’s game due to an ankle injury, the 76ers have no other choice but to turn to Tyrese Maxey to carry them here. And that’s not necessarily a bad thing. Maxey has played extremely well in December averaging 25.1 points per game, he’s scored 30+ in 2 straight vs Minnesota and Toronto, taking 22 and 24 shots respectively.
Embiid is averaging 23.7 shot attempts per game this month, so there will be plenty more shot opportunities for the rest of the Sixers here. Maxey is also averaging 7 assists per game in December, he’s at -138 odds to get to 7 dimes here which is also a good bet, but I’m going with the points as a slightly safer option in my opinion.
Dallas Mavericks vs Phoenix Suns best bet: Mavericks +5 (-110)
The Phoenix Suns have gone ice-cold from three-point land scoring just 5, 5 and 7 threes over their last 3 outings. They’ve hit single digits from deep in 4 of 5 and have won just 3 of their last 10 outings. Bradley Beal is nowhere to be found, while Jusuf Nurkic, Damion Lee and Josh Okogie are all questionable to play here.
Dallas is struggling a bit with injuries, but Luka Doncic is healthy and playing well. He just carried them to a massive win over San Antonio with a 39-point triple-double. The Mavs have covered in 5 of the last 6 meetings, while the Suns are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games. I really like the Mavericks to cover as 5-point dogs here.
