Filip Tomic
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It promises to be a rowdy crowd tonight at Madison Square Garden as the Knicks fight to stay alive in the postseason. Miami’s Game 4 win has them up 3-1 in the series, but can Jimmy Butler and co. finish the job? Tip-off is at 7:30 pm ET on TNT. Check out my Same Game Parlay below.
Don’t forget to also check our NBA predictions for picks on the side and total for Game 5 of LA Lakers vs Golden State Warriors.
Let’s dive into my SGP bet now!
Julius Randle to score 20+ points (-230)
Jimmy Butler to record 6+ rebounds (-150)
RJ Barrett over 1.5 made threes (-156)
Kyle Lowry to record 4+ assists (-175)
Same Game Parlay odds: +516
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Julius Randle to score 20+ points (-230)
Julius Randle has come under a lot of scrutiny for his play in this series, particularly in Game 4 when he turned the ball over 6 times and attempted just 3 shots in the second half. He was still able to finish with 20 points, the second time he has done so in the series. Let’s face it, the Knicks aren’t surviving another game without Randle having a solid offensive game. With his 3-point shot not falling consistently in this series I expect him to take the ball to the hole far more often in Game 5. He’s averaging 5.3 free throws per game in the series, if he can double that tonight he will be in good shape to lead the Knicks in scoring. He’s averaging 21 points per game in 4 meetings with Miami this season and he averaged 23.5 points in 39 games at Madison Square Garden during the regular season. His confidence should also go up Playing in front of a packed arena, so I have no worries that he will get at least 20 points.
Read our Miami Heat vs New York Knicks predictions
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Jimmy Butler to record 6+ rebounds (-150)
Rebounding is all about effort and nobody gives more of that than Jimmy Butler. Just like Randle said after Game 4, the Heat wanted it more. Miami has outrebounded the Knicks in 2 games in a row, which has proved to be the difference-maker in those games. Ever since Game 3 of the Bucks series, Butler’s rebounding has gone up, and he has now recorded at least 6 rebounds in 4 of his last 5, including 11 at MSG in Game 1. This being a road game and with New York battling to keep their season alive, I am not expecting a finesse game by either team. Each possession will be a battle and when it comes to games like this there’s no player in the league that I would rather have on my team than Butler. In 8 postseason games he’s at 6.4 boards per game, and I’m confident he can grab 6 of them tonight.
We also have a LA Lakers vs Golden State Warriors Same Game Parlay at +606 odds!
RJ Barrett over 1.5 made threes (-156)
Randle’s disappearing act on offense has elevated RJ Barrett to the 2nd-highest points-per-game scorer in the postseason for the Knicks. He’s coming off a solid effort in Game 4 where he scored 24 points, and that was his 3rd game in the series with over 20 points scored. He’s shooting the 3-ball at 34% efficiency, which is up from 31% he averaged during the regular season. Game 1 is the only game in this series in which he has failed to connect on at least 2 threes, and right now he’s on a run of 2 threes scored in 5 of 7 games if we include Round 1 against Cleveland. Miami has done a solid job at defending the perimeter over the last 3 games, but still isn’t elite in that category, having finished only 19th in opponent 3-point percentage while allowing 36.2% of shots during the regular season. With Barrett scoring at least 2 threes in 5 of his last 6 games against Miami, I think backing him to do so tonight is a really solid bet.
Kyle Lowry to record 4+ assists (-175)
Kyle Lowry’s contribution in this series has made a huge impact for the Miami Heat. He’s averaging 28 minutes per game off the bench, up from the 21.4 he averaged in round 1 against Milwaukee. He has been taking care of point-guard responsibilities while Butler rests on the bench, which has been crucial for the team, and the veteran has taken care of the ball extremely well in this series, committing just 3 turnovers in total. He has cleared this line in all 4 games, and on the road at MSG he had back-to-back games of 6 assists to start the series. He might not be an elite athlete any more at 37, but he is still able to make a solid contribution off the bench. I have no doubt the Heat will once again rely on him for a few assists in this game.
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