New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills NFL predictions, picks, odds & spreads: Bills ride emotion to a big win

Buffalo Bills wide receiver Gabe Davis (13) runs the ball in for a touchdown in the first quarter against the Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium.

The New England Patriots will be trying to join the Buffalo Bills in the postseason when the 2 AFC East rivals collide on Sunday afternoon. New England will clinch a playoff spot with a win, while it would need all kinds of help with a loss or tie. Meanwhile, the Bills want to emerge victorious as they position themselves for AFC seeding – which has become incredibly complicated following last week’s Monday Night Football cancellation against the Cincinnati Bengals. 

Here are our predictions and best bets for Sunday’s showdown in Buffalo.  

Don’t miss any of our NFL picks for Week 18! 

Patriots vs Bills spread, odds & betting lines

Point Spread: Patriots +7, Bills -7
Total Points Over/Under: 43.5 points
Money Line Odds: Patriots +265, Bills -320 


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New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills expert picks

We have 2 NFL picks for this week’s clash between the Patriots and Bills. Let’s take a look.   

Point spread pick: Bills -7 (-110) over Patriots

Thankfully Damar Hamlin seems to be improving and was able to speak to his teammates on Friday. That has to help motivate the Bills to perform well on Sunday. Meanwhile, the Patriots just issued a pair of suspensions earlier in the week, showing there is some serious dysfunction internally. They also have a handful of key players questionable for this contest, including receiver Jakobi Meyers. New England just barely squeaked past Miami by 2 points at home in Week 17, and that was with Tua Tagovailoa sidelined and Teddy Bridgewater hurt early. It was mostly Skylar Thompson on the field for the Dolphins. Before that the Pats had lost 4 of 5 games with their only win in that span coming against a hapless Cardinals squad. The offense has been mostly anemic with Matt Patricia calling plays, so there is no reason to think Mac Jones will suddenly light it up on the road in Buffalo. Look for a Bills win and cover.

Be sure to check out our full New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills predictions  

Patriots vs Bills over/under totals pick: Under 47.5 (-110)

The under makes sense because it’s hard to see New England’s offense scoring much at all. The Patriots have been struggling to move the ball consistently and now they are going on the road to face one of the toughest defenses in the NFL. Buffalo has held opponents to 13 or fewer points in 3 of the past 4 games, and when these teams first played in 2022 New England managed only 10. Jones averaged a mere 5.4 yards per attempt and the Patriots churned out just 60 rushing yards. Their passing game has a very low ceiling even at 100 percent and right now Meyers is dealing with a shoulder injury. The under should be the play in this battle between AFC East rivals with a whole lot of familiarity. 

Be sure to check out all of our expert betting insight, analysis and even more NFL Predictions and Best Bets from the rest of the Week 18 action. 

Pickswise is the home of free NFL Picks and NFL Odds. Check out the latest NFL Prop Bets and NFL Parlays as well as expert NFL Underdog Picks and NFL Computer Picks. 

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