New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers Predictions, Odds, Spreads & Betting Lines: Home underdogs have value

Pittsburgh Steelers defense celebrate an interception by cornerback Ahkello Witherspoon (25 during the fourth quarter of a Week 1 NFL football game against the Cincinnati Bengals at Paycor Stadium.

Week 2 of the NFL season continues with a New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers matchup. The Patriots were outplayed in every aspect of the their Week 1 matchup against the Miami Dolphins while the Steelers took down the reigning AFC Champions in overtime in Cincinnati. Our NFL expert has his picks and predictions for this matchup, so let’s take a look at Sunday’s game.

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NFL Week 2 New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers spread, odds & betting lines

Point spread: Patriots -2; Steelers +2
Total points over/under: 40.5 points
Money line odds: Patriots -130; Steelers -130

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New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers expert picks

We’ve got some great NFL picks for this week’s game between the Patriots and Steelers, including 2-star selections for our against the spread pick and our over/under game total selection. 

Against the spread pick: Steelers +2 (-110) over Patriots

The Patriots were an absolute disaster in Week 1 in Miami, and now they are favorites on the road against the Steelers — who just knocked off the defending AFC champs. What? As you might be able to tell, I see several things wrong with this line. Mac Jones and the Patriots were shut out 17-0 at halftime before they were finally able to find the endzone in the third quarter, but that was it. Nick Folk never had a field-goal attempt, as the Patriots’ offense rarely came close to being in Dolphins’ territory. And to make matters worse, Jones had to get an x-ray on his back following the game, so I highly doubt he will come into Week 2 at 100 percent health. Jones had a forgettable Week 1 performance, throwing for 213 yards, 1 TD and 1 interception, and his offensive line provided no help. In fact, Jones had the second-quickest time to throw in Week 1 because the New England offensive line was constantly getting beat. The second-year QB had 3 seconds or more to throw on just 3 percent of his drop-backs, which was easily the lowest rate in Week 1.

It was a game that seemed to never end in Cincinnati, where the Steelers knocked off the Bengals on a game-winning field goal in overtime. Minkah Fitzpatrick saved the day, blocking the PAT as time expired to force overtime. And after some good luck and terrible play by the Cincinnati special teams, Pittsburgh finally won. The Steelers were still able to force 5 turnovers in Week 1 and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them pick off Jones several times. If the Pittsburgh defense can stop the New England rushing attack, the Patriots’ offense will stall all afternoon. I think the Steelers could pull off the upset, but the difference between their money line price at +110 and their spread at -110 odds is very small, so I’ll gladly take the +2 and back the home team against the spread.

Be sure to check out our full New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers predictions

Over/Under totals pick: Under 40.5 (-110)

Following Sunday’s games, the total for this Week 2 matchup opened at 43 points. The public was quick to take action and forced the sportsbooks to drop the total to 40.5 by Tuesday morning. It’s no surprise that this is one of the lowest totals in Week 2 since both teams pride themselves on their defense — not their offense. There was a lot of uncertainty surrounding the New England defense heading into Week 1, but all things considered that unit was fairly impressive. The Pats weren’t able to cause a turnover, but they had have several chances throughout the game and they did limit the Miami offense to just 65 rushing yards and 242 passing yards.

That game finished at just 27 points, and I anticipate a very similar total in Pittsburgh. The Steelers’ defense will go from Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase to an injured Jones and Jakobi Meyers, and if they were able to limit Cincinnati to just 20 points I would set the ceiling for New England’s points at around 13. With a less-than-100% Jones and two strong defenses, I’ll back the under in Pittsburgh.

Be sure to check out all of our expert betting insight, analysis and even more NFL Predictions and Best Bets from the rest of the Week 2 action.

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