Ricky Dimon
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We are wrapping up Week 17 of the NFL season with Monday Night Football between the Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals. In fact, we are wrapping up MNF as whole for the 2022 campaign since next week the Monday festivities will defer to college football’s National Championship between Georgia and TCU. And what a MNF finale it should be, as the Bills are favored to make the Super Bowl out of the AFC and the Bengals are starting to play like the team that made it that far last year.
Below is our SGP for Monday Night Football, and also be sure to check out our full Buffalo Bills vs Cincinnati Bengals picks on the side and total.
Under 49.5 (-110)
Joe Mixon over 23.5 receiving yards (-114)
Tee Higgins to score a touchdown (+170)
Parlay odds: +1131
Part of the value in Same Game Parlays, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. However, at the same time plays that aren’t correlated drived up the overall payout of the parlay. The latter is the plan here, as Joe Mixon racking up a decent number of receiving yards and Tee Higgins finding the end zone do not exactly mesh with an under play. But even if those props hit there is no reason why this contest can’t stay below the 49.5 threshold. Let’s break down each of the SGP legs.
Under 49.5 (-110)
There is a lot at stake in terms of AFC seeding and that could lead to a tight and cagey game rather than a shootout. The Bengals and Bills defenses are both respectable if not stellar in most areas, so yards and points won’t be handed out like charity. Buffalo’s D would take hit if safety Jordan Poyer was ruled out, but the noises are positive about his participation after a knee injury and he was able to play through it against the Bears on Christmas Eve, while the Monday appointment has given him an extra day to rest. The Bengals have scored more than 23 points only once in the last 3 weeks and that was against the Bucs, who were dominating the first half but then a flurry of fluke turnovers time and time again gave the visitors great field position in their come-from-behind win. With a sizable 49.5 on the books, this looks like an under.
Joe Mixon over 23.5 receiving yards (-114)
There is no need to overthink this one. Joe Mixon has exceeded this 23.5 quota in 6 of the last 7 outings. He has a whopping 12 receptions on 15 targets over the past 2 games and is coming off a 43-yard receiving effort during last week’s 22-18 victory over New England. The Bills are in the bottom half of the NFL in terms of number of catches per game made by opposing running backs (4.7) and they are allowing 29.9 receiving yards per game to RBs – not a huge number but also nothing dominant. Count on Mixon remaining on a receiving roll.
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Tee Higgins to score a touchdown (+170)
Similarly, there is also a ton of momentum behind this particular prop. Tee Higgins has scored a touchdown in 4 consecutive contests. He has had at least 8 targets in 5 of the last 6 contests and has made at least 7 catches on 4 of those occasions. To say that his connection with Joe Burrow is clicking right now would be a gross understatement. With Buffalo cornerback Tre’Davious White likely hounding Ja’Marr Chase most of the night, this should be a great opportunity for Higgins to deliver yet another TD.
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