Week 9 same game parlay: New England Patriots vs. New York Jets (+3869)

Cam Newton of the New England Patriots scores a touchdown
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Ricky Dimon

NFL· 11 months ago

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Since graduating from Davidson (The College That Stephen Curry Built), I have been writing about sports--just about any and all you can think of!--and coaching tennis in Atlanta, Ga. Beyond the four major sports, I am an avid tennis fan and cover the ATP Tour on a daily basis. If I'm not busy writing, you can generally find me on a tennis court or traveling the world wherever a sporting event takes me.

It’s go big or go home for us on this same-game parlay for Monday Night Football. And why not? This is an utterly terrible matchup—the kind of stuff we have become all too accustomed to in primetime games this season. Heck, even Sunday Night’s contest between New Orleans and Tampa Bay that looked good on paper turned out to be an absolute dud. Maybe this one that looks awful on paper could turn out to be a classic? Yeah, right. Both the New York Jets (dead last) and New England Patriots are outside the top 25 in our current power rankings, and for good reason. The Jets are in control of the Trevor Lawrence sweepstakes and the Patriots may be trying to get into that picture, themselves, because they are getting left in the dust in the AFC East by Buffalo and Miami.

If you want to spice up this otherwise lackluster affair, a same-game parlay may be the way to go. And it could be a profitable way, too. Let’s take a look at the best such option for the Monday night festivities, and be sure to check out our full preview of the game for picks on the side and total.

Jets +7.5 alternate spread (+105)

Under 37.5 alternate game total (+140)

Cam Newton Over 49.5 rushing yards (-110)

Damiere Byrd Under 42.5 receiving yards (-110)

Parlay odds: +3869

The value of same-game parlays, of course, is that all four components of it can be correlated if you so choose. That’s part the plan for this particular play, as we feel good about an ugly, low-scoring game developing. And the lower the score, the better the chance New York has of being competitive. After all, the Jets by no means boast the kind of offense that can keep up with any opponent in a shootout. Meanwhile, components that aren’t correlated drive up the price of a same-game parlay. That’s the case with the over on Cam Newton’s rushing yards. But let’s be honest—Newton can exceed 49.5 rushing yards and there would still be no reason why this game couldn’t be competitive and low scoring.

Jets +7.5 alternate spread (+105)

The actual spread ballooned to double-digits when it was learned that NYJ starting quarterback Sam Darnold would miss this game due to a shoulder injury. But is that not addition by subtraction? Well, maybe not since New York’s backup is a past-his-prime Joe Flacco. Still, that shouldn’t matter. The Jets are going to be bad regardless of who is under center. The reason why this game is going to be competitive is because New England has been awful of late. Don’t be afraid to tease the spread back down to +7.5.

Under 37.5 alternate game total (+140)

There is also no reason to shy away from teasing the spread down a few points. Even beyond Darnold’s woes, both teams are dealing with a whole host of players who are either out, doubtful, or questionable for Monday night. For a team as bad as the Jets are overall, their defense actually isn’t horrific. If they can stop anyone, they can stop the struggling Patriots.

Cam Newton Over 49.5 rushing yards (-110)

Julian Edelman is on injured reserve and N’Keal Harry is also out. Those are two of Newton’s best receiving options, so things may get better before they get worse for the veteran signal-caller. That being said, if there is one thing he remains effective at it’s improvising and running the football. Newton has rushed for at least 47 yards in four of six games this season, including at least 75 twice.

Damiere Byrd Under 42.5 receiving yards (-110)

Byrd is climbing up New England’s WR depth chart by default—not because he is wowing anyone. The former South Carolina standout has been targeted a grand total of 10 times in the last three contests and he did not exceed 39 yards on any of those occasions. Both of these woeful offenses will likely be keeping the ball on the ground most of the way in this one. It’s hard to see Byrd doing much of anything.

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