NFL Week 18 same game parlay (+767): Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens

A video tribute to Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger (7) after playing against the Cleveland Browns at Heinz Field.
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Ricky Dimon

NFL· 1 week ago

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Since graduating from Davidson (The College That Stephen Curry Built), I have been writing about sports--just about any and all you can think of!--and coaching tennis in Atlanta, Ga. Beyond the four major sports, I am an avid tennis fan and cover the ATP Tour on a daily basis. If I'm not busy writing, you can generally find me on a tennis court or traveling the world wherever a sporting event takes me.

Playoff hopes are on life support for both the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers heading into Sunday’s AFC North showdown. Each team needs to win this game in addition to getting help — and a lot of it, too. Let’s take a look at the best same game parlay option for Steelers vs Ravens, and also be sure to check out our full game preview for picks on the side and total.

Steelers +3.5 (-110)

Ben Roethlisberger Over 231.5 passing yards (-114)

Devonta Freeman Over 48.5 rushing yards (-114)

Parlay odds: +767

Part of the value in same game parlays, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Ben Roethlisberger throwing for a bunch of yards would obviously work well with a Pittsburgh cover. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with backing the over on Devonta Freeman’s rushing yardage quota. But even if Freeman runs for fair amount, there is no reason why the Steelers can’t stay within the number. Let’s break down each of the three legs one by one.

Steelers +3.5 (-110)

Pittsburgh stayed mathematically alive in the AFC playoff picture by winning Roethlisberger’s Heinz Field farewell 26-14 over Cleveland on Monday Night Football. It wasn’t a spectacular performance, but it was good enough. “Good enough” is what the Steelers have been for most of the season, compiling a solid 7-4-1 record since beginning 1-3. Their current stretch includes a 20-19 victory over Baltimore in Week 13. Games being decided by no more than a field goal in this rivalry matchup are the norm. As such, I’m not giving 3.5 points in either direction. I’m definitely not doing it when the Ravens are favored by that much, even though they have been pretty much awful ever since starting the 2021-22 campaign 5-1. In fact, they are saddled with a current 5-game losing streak. The fact that Lamar Jackson is still out (Tyler Huntley will start again) makes them even less appealing. Pittsburgh is 6-2 against the spread in its last 8 against the AFC. The Ravens are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 as favorites. It should also be noted that the road team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 head-to-head matchups.

Ben Roethlisberger Over 231.5 passing yards (-114)

For all of the Ravens’ offensive woes, don’t forget that they are dead last in the NFL in passing defense. They surrender 281.7 yards per game through the air on 8.2 yards per attempt. Their interception-to-touchdown ration on the defensive side of the ball is a dreadful 30-to-8. At the same time, Baltimore is No. 1 in the league against the run. Pittsburgh will have to do its damage via the airwaves, giving Roethlisberger every reason to attempt a ton of passes in what will almost certainly be the final game of his NFL career.

Devonta Freeman Over 48.5 rushing yards (-114)

Whereas the Steelers are taking to the air, the Ravens will be content to keep the ball on the ground. One, Huntley is under center. Two, Pittsburgh is second-to-last in rushing defense and dead last in yards per rush allowed. Three, Freeman is enjoying some resurgent form at the moment. He has taken over in a depleted Baltimore backfield and last week against the Rams he carried 14 times for 76 yards. By comparison, Latavius Murray churned out only 31 yards on 11 rushes. All of that points toward Freeman getting most of the work on Sunday, and given how bad the Steelers are at stopping the run that should translate into plenty of success.

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