NFL Week 11 same game parlay (+968): San Francisco 49ers vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Jimmy Garoppolo Playing Against Vikings
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Ricky Dimon

NFL· 2 weeks ago

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Since graduating from Davidson (The College That Stephen Curry Built), I have been writing about sports--just about any and all you can think of!--and coaching tennis in Atlanta, Ga. Beyond the four major sports, I am an avid tennis fan and cover the ATP Tour on a daily basis. If I'm not busy writing, you can generally find me on a tennis court or traveling the world wherever a sporting event takes me.

The San Francisco 49ers will be trying to win their second game in a row to keep themselves in NFC playoff contention when they visit the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday afternoon. San Francisco is 4-5, while Jacksonville comes in at 2-7. Let’s take a look at the best same game parlay option for 49ers vs Jaguars, and also be sure to check out our full game preview for picks on the side and total.

49ers -6.5 (-115)

Jimmy Garoppolo over 248.5 passing yards (-114)

James Robinson to score a touchdown (+125)

Parlay odds: +968

Part of the value in same game parlays, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Jimmy Garoppolo passing for his fair share of yards would obviously work well with a San Francisco win and cover. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with tipping James Robinson to score a touchdown. But even if he does, you still have to feel good about the Niners’ chances. Let’s break down each of the three legs one by one.

49ers -6.5 (-115)

San Francisco is 2-1 in in its last 3 games following a 31-10 blowout of the division rival Rams on Monday Night Football in Week 10. The 49ers limited the Rams to 278 yards of total offense and a 5.1 yards per play average. In three of the last four games, rookie sixth-round draft pick Elijah Mitchell has churned out yardage totals of 107, 137 and 91. Jacksonville has actually been respectable for the most part over the past 4 weeks. Aside from a 31-7 loss to Seattle, the Jaguars have posted wins over Miami and, somehow, Buffalo, plus a 23-17 loss at Indianapolis last week. Unfortunately for the Jags, they pretty much can’t do anything on offense. They have had only one 100-yard rusher this season (Robinson in Week 5) and Trevor Lawrence’s most recent passing yardage numbers are 118 and 162.

Jimmy Garoppolo over 248.5 passing yards (-114)

Before last week’s humiliation of the Rams, Garoppolo had passed for 322 yards and 326 yards in the previous two games. The only reason why he recorded just 182 yards against LA is that San Francisco dominated from start to finish and didn’t have to throw the ball. It’s true that the 49ers will probably be beating the Jaguars most of the way, too, but as mentioned above Jacksonville has at least been relatively competitive of late. Garoppolo should be airing it out a fair amount and the Jags are surrendering a dreadful 8.0 yards per pass attempt (sixth worst in the NFL).

James Robinson to score a touchdown (+125)

Robinson (knee/heel) has been limited in practice this week and is listed as questionable, but he is expected to play. The former Illinois State standout has scored 6 touchdowns this season and all 6 have come in the last 6 games. San Francisco is 23rd in the league against the run and has allowed the third-most rushing scored (12). Assuming Robinson is at or near 100%, all signs point to a successful day at the office, including a TD.

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