An exciting 11-game slate on Sunday concludes with the Miami Dolphins traveling to California to face the Los Angeles Chargers on this week’s edition of Sunday Night Football. This primetime matchup is especially exciting because it is a battle between 5th and 6th picks from the 2020 NFL draft. Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert have faced each other only once in the NFL, and Tagovailoa and the Dolphins were victorious. With Keenan Allen back, Herbert is looking to even the score.
Check out our full preview between the Miami Dolphins and Los Angeles Chargers
Dolphins alternate spread -5.5 (+120)
First half over 26.5 points (-110)
Keenan Allen to score a touchdown (+145)
Same Game Parlay odds: +916
Part of the value in Same Game Parlays, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. However, if you choose picks that don’t necessarily correlate, like Keenan Allen of the Chargers scoring a touchdown and the Dolphins alternate spread, it boosts the odds. Let’s break down each of the SGP legs.
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Miami Dolphins -5.5 (+120) over Los Angeles Chargers
The Dolphins had their 5-game winning streak snapped by Brock Purdy and the 49ers last week. It was a surprising defeat, as Jimmy Garoppolo went down early, and most expected Miami to run away with the game. However, several terrible throws by Tua Tagovailoa combined with the impressive San Francisco defense made it hard for the Fins to get anything going. Week 14 offers an opportunity for the Miami offense to get back on track as the Chargers are allowing the 3rd-most points per game in the league (25.8), and that number increases to 28 when they’re at home.
In their last 4 home games, the Chargers have allowed 38, 16, 37 and 30 points. And yes, the 16 points were scored by the abysmal Denver offense. Justin Herbert will do all he can to keep the Chargers in the game on offense, but as long as the Miami defense keeps them out of the end zone and forces them to resort to taking 3 points, the Fins should win by at least 6.
Don’t miss our Week 14 mega parlay at +806 odds!
First half over 26.5 points (-110)
If you’re looking to play the trends for this matchup, look no further than the first-half total. The Dolphins and Chargers have been two of the highest-scoring first-half teams in the league. Los Angeles ranks 3rd, averaging 14.9 first-half points per game. Miami is right behind them in 4th, averaging 14.8 points. That has made the first half very profitable for both teams, as it is 8-4 in the Chargers’ 10 games and 9-2-1 in Miami’s 12 games. And looking closer at this scenario, the over is 4-1 when the Chargers are at home and 6-0 when the Dolphins are on the road. You might be wondering why not take the full game over, and that’s because these teams rank 21st and 28th in second-half points per game. Both offenses start hot and quickly burn out after halftime, so I’m focusing on the first half to maximize the chance of a win.
Keenan Allen to score a touchdown (+145)
It has been a season to forget for Keenan Allen. He’s been plagued with injuries and has appeared in only 5 games, but even that’s a stretch. After missing Weeks 2-6 with an injury, Allen returned in Week 7, but only played in the first half. But Herbert’s favorite target is finally back and healthy and has played in all of the Chargers’ last 3 games. In the last 3 weeks, Allen has had 29 targets, 16 receptions, and 231 yards as he’s back to being the #1 option for Los Angeles. He has found the end zone in back-to-back weeks, and he will be going against a Miami secondary that allows the 11th-most passing yards per game and is tied for the 5th-most passing touchdowns allowed. I expect both teams to be scoring a lot on Sunday night, and for one of those scores to be from Herbert to Allen.
Jared Smith has his Week 14 best bets locked in!
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