Phil Agius
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NFL Week 6 begins with an AFC West battle in Missouri as the Broncos and Chiefs face each other for the first of two meetings in the next 3 weeks. Given that the Chiefs have won their last 15 games against Denver, the home team will likely be looking forward to this contest more than the visitors.
The Super Bowl champions are 4-1 this season despite being yet to hit their usual heights on the field, while the Broncos are 1-4 as Sean Payton’s first season as head coach continues to be a disappointment. Recent injuries to the Chiefs’ star tight end Travis Kelce and Broncos starting running back Javonte Williams mean there are more question marks than usual about players’ usage rates on both offenses, but I have put together a simple 2-leg Same Game Parlay featuring 2 Chiefs receivers that still pays out at juicy +959 odds if it hits in this primetime matchup.
You can check out the full game preview in our Week 6 NFL picks as well as our favorite Broncos vs Chiefs player props for the game, but now let’s take a look at our TNF Same Game Parlay.
Justin Watson to score a touchdown (+500)
Kadarius Toney over 28.5 receiving yards (-114)
Same Game Parlay odds: +959
Justin Watson to score a touchdown (+500)
This parlay is going to stand or fall on this call, but Justin Watson has been a bigger part of the Chiefs offense than many might have expected this season and he has yardage totals of 45, 62, 51, 5 and 56 yards. The only dud came against the Jets when he oddly had his highest snap count of the year, but he has been on the field for at least 40% of plays in the last 4 Chiefs games, recording at least 3 targets and 2 receptions in all except that poor Week 4 game.
What he doesn’t yet have is a touchdown, which you will have noted is the key factor in this bet. However, the usefulness of Watson in the current mix of Chiefs receivers means he’s surely going to find his way into the end zone at some stage and the Broncos defense is the ideal opportunity for him to do it. Their poor tackling and pursuit effort seen in their recent losses to the Dolphins and Jets suggest that if the speedy Watson gets his hands on a mid-range pass from Patrick Mahomes he could take it all the way. Watson had 2 TDs for the Chiefs last season when his overall usage was lower than it is now.
There is a decent chance that the Chiefs, who are double-digit favorites, may be in a position to rest some of their top names late in the game if they have a big lead, which could increase the prospects of a garbage-time score for their second-tier receivers. Watson actually has the 2nd-most receiving yards on the Chiefs this season with 219, which is just 3 behind Kelce despite having had 21 fewer targets and 17 fewer receptions. Watson is just +295 odds to score a TD in this game at DraftKings, so the value of using FanDuel’s +500 in our parlay is clear.
Kadarius Toney over 28.5 receiving yards (-110)
The name above might scare a few people off after Kadarius Toney famously flopped in the national spotlight in Week 1 with a 1-yard day against the Lions, and the former first-round pick of the Giants amazingly managed to do even worse in Week 3, posting -1 receiving yards against the Bears in a 31-point win! However, there were signs in last week’s victory over the Vikings that Toney has regained the trust of head coach Andy Reid and QB Patrick Mahomes as he was targeted 6 times, catching 5 balls for 26 yards.
Something slightly better than that should be achievable against the NFL’s 29th-ranked pass defense. A player who scored a touchdown in the Super Bowl last season should really be up to posting a yardage total this modest against such a poor defense.
Find out where the Chiefs and Broncos rank in this week’s Pickswise NFL Power Rankings
