College Football Week 11 Best Bets: Friday, November 13

The weekend is swiftly approaching, which means it’s almost time for another action-packed Saturday of college football. But before we get there, we have a three-game Friday slate to tend to, consisting entirely of power conference matchups. Will Florida State win their second straight road game following Mike Norvell’s firing? Can UCLA maintain its unblemished marks both SU and ATS? Does Colorado have what it takes to knock off Houston and play spoiler on their College Football Playoff hopes?

Ahead of the abbreviated slate, here is my favorite pick of the bunch. Don’t forget our CFB predictions for tips and analysis on every FBS game in Week 11 and beyond.

CFB Week 11 Friday Best Bet: UCLA Bruins -10 over Illinois Fighting Illini (-108)

Odds available at BetMGM at the time of publishing. Playable to -115. 

Katin Houser being back is ideal for Illinois’ offense, but adding in the variables of traveling across the country to play one of the nation’s best defenses complicates things. UCLA is ferocious against opposing quarterbacks, sitting second nationally in PPA per pass and first nationally in success rate allowed outside of garbage time over the last six weeks. The Bruins prevent methodical drives at an elite rate, and when opponents get into scoring range (across UCLA’s 40-yard line), they surrender only 1.88 points per trip. To make matters worse for Illinois, Houser is not particularly efficient under pressure, completing fewer than 27% of his passes in those situations (PFF), which is not ideal against a UCLA stop-unit that is top-three nationally in havoc generated since Week 5.

Illinois does not compare to UCLA defensively, as the Fighting Illini are outside the top 100 in efficiency and success rate over the last six weeks. Their opponents are seemingly always ahead of the sticks, leaving them in third-and-managable situations, which leads to the Illini also ranking outside the top 110 in third-down conversion rate allowed. With a strong ground game and an apparent strong downfield passer in Ty Dieffenbach, UCLA has plenty of ways to pick apart an Illini stop-unit. Furthermore, the Illini are second-worst nationally in opposing red-zone scoring rate, as their opponents have come away with points on 29 of their 30 red-zone trips against Illinois.

There are a couple injuries to monitor across UCLA’s offensive line, but I’m laying it with the Bruins regardless. This is the first trip out west for the Illini this year, and Brett Bielema’s teams haven’t fared particularly well when venturing out west in the new era of the Big Ten.